Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#497 Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1) 89.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#61 of 110 in Division VI
#13 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-0 A #696 McDermott Northwest (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 20-21 A #533 McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-6 H #636 Beaver Eastern (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 19 (85%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 46-30 A #594 Chillicothe Huntington (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-12 H #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #534 Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 1 (53%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#105 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
12.45 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #7 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-6%, 5W-25%, 6W-37%, 7W-24%, 8W-7%

Playoff chance
66% now (need 6-4), 17% home
85% with a win in next game, and 54% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.32 (6.95-11.90) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.45 (9.92-15.63) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
7W: 15.73 (13.55-19.01) 99% in, 39% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 19.21 (17.29-21.38) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
3.2% WLWWW 18.90 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#2, range #1-#6) Shadyside 16%

Worst realistic scenario
6.0% LLLLL 6.40 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% LLLWW 11.94 pts, 81% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Paint Valley 24%
10% LLLLW 9.12 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out) Grandview Heights 37%
6.7% WLLLW 12.19 pts, 76% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Paint Valley 25%
6.5% LLWWW 15.68 pts, 100% in, 42% home (#5, range #1-#8) Shadyside 22%
6.2% LLLWL 9.12 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
6.2% WLLWW 15.17 pts, 99% in, 24% home (#5, range #2-out) Shadyside 22%
(44% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Beaver Eastern (2-3 D6 R23) over Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (1-4 D7 R27)
Week 8: McDermott Northwest (0-5 D5 R20) over Portsmouth Notre Dame (0-5 D7 R27)
Week 6: McDermott Northwest (0-5 D5 R20) over Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (1-4 D7 R27)
Week 8: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 10: Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1 D7 R27) over Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
18% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
17% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
17% Shadyside (4-1)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)

Championship probabilities
0.6% Region 23 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 88.5 (3-1, #509, D6 #63) 56% (need 6-4), 17% home, proj. #7
W3: 85.0 (2-1, #551, D6 #71) 29% (need 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
W2: 87.2 (1-1, #526, D6 #64) 41% (need 6-4), 16% home, proj. out
W1: 91.8 (1-0, #476, D6 #47) 69% (need 6-4), 38% home, proj. #6
W0: 91.8 (0-0, #507, D6 #55) 60% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home, proj. #5
Last year 100.5 (11-1)