Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#472 Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant (3-2) 92.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#54 of 110 in Division VI
#9 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 47-0 A #635 Bidwell River Valley (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 17 (79%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 21-20 A #532 Lucasville Valley (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 15 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-21 A #277 West Portsmouth Portsmouth West (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 55-14 H #688 South Point (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 28-35 A #511 Chesapeake (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #441 Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #305 Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1 D4 R15), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #290 Ironton (3-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #411 Proctorville Fairland (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #531 Ironton Rock Hill (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#75 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
8.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-6%, 4W-28%, 5W-38%, 6W-22%, 7W-6%

Playoff chance
17% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
28% with a win in next game, and 8% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.35 (5.65-12.60) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.25 (8.65-14.95) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 14.45 (12.15-17.65) 99% in, 13% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.6% WWLLW 11.55 pts, 50% in (#8, range #5-out) Fort Frye 26%

Worst realistic scenario
6.5% LLLLL 3.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LLLLW 4.85 pts, out
12% WLLLW 7.80 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
7.7% LLLWW 7.95 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.5% WLLWW 10.70 pts, 29% in (out, range #6-out) Paint Valley 26%
5.9% WLLLL 6.05 pts, out
4.8% LWLLW 8.80 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(37% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Lucasville Valley (2-3 D6 R23) over Belpre (3-2 D6 R23)
Week 10: Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 8: Bidwell River Valley (0-5 D5 R19) over McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15)
Week 10: Bidwell River Valley (0-5 D5 R19) over Crown City South Gallia (1-4 D7 R27)
Week 9: Ironton Rock Hill (1-4 D5 R19) over Chesapeake (3-2 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
20% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
19% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)
13% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 100.1 (3-1, #361, D6 #28) 65% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home, proj. #6
W3: 100.1 (2-1, #363, D6 #26) 71% (bubble if 6-4), 34% home, proj. #4
W2: 99.2 (2-0, #379, D6 #27) 80% (need 6-4), 53% home, proj. #2
W1: 102.0 (1-0, #334, D6 #23) 86% (need 6-4), 63% home, proj. #2
W0: 102.8 (0-0, #349, D6 #26) 83% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home, proj. #4
Last year 107.5 (11-2)