Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#204 Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0) 111.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#12 of 110 in Division VI
#1 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 27-0 A #357 Columbus Centennial (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 4 (57%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-0 H #628 Columbus Africentric Early College (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 29 (93%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 70-26 A #598 Zanesville Bishop Rosecrans (3-2 D7 R27), pick: W by 24 (90%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 17-16 H #257 Columbus Bishop Ready (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-13 A #508 Columbus Bexley (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #144 Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #167 London (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #490 Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #572 Circleville Logan Elm (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #296 Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 4 (59%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#45 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
16.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-2%, 7W-15%, 8W-38%, 9W-34%, 10W-10%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-4), 75% home
100% with a win in next game, and 98% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 12.15 (9.20-16.55) 78% in, 5% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
7W: 13.75 (10.20-20.45) 95% in, 24% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
8W: 16.75 (12.15-24.25) 99% in, 71% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 20.35 (16.85-25.75) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
10W: 24.30 (21.40-27.20) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
10% WWWWW 24.30 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) East Knox 12%

Worst realistic scenario
9.4% LLWWL 13.10 pts, 93% in, 7% home (#6, range #2-out) Fort Frye 21%

Most likely other scenarios
19% LLWWW 15.80 pts, 99% in, 54% home (#4, range #1-out) Shadyside 21%
16% LWWWW 20.10 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Adena 14%
13% WLWWW 20.10 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#6) Adena 13%
7.5% LWWWL 17.25 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#3, range #1-#7) Shadyside 18%
5.8% WLWWL 17.35 pts, 100% in, 83% home (#3, range #1-#6) Shadyside 16%
4.6% WWWWL 21.60 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#1, range #1-#5) Southeastern 12%
(16% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Columbus Centennial (3-2 D3 R11) over Columbus Mifflin (1-4 D2 R7)
Week 8: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 10: Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14) over Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 6: Columbus Bishop Ready (2-3 D5 R19) over Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0 D5 R19)
Week 6: Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15) over Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
13% Shadyside (4-1)
12% Frankfort Adena (3-1)
11% Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1)
11% Galion Northmor (5-0)
8% Howard East Knox (5-0)

Championship probabilities
44% Region 23 champ
2.9% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.1 (4-0, #238, D6 #11) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home, proj. #4
W3: 104.9 (3-0, #300, D6 #18) 76% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home, proj. #7
W2: 106.3 (2-0, #274, D6 #14) 88% (need 6-4), 64% home, proj. #3
W1: 102.2 (1-0, #331, D6 #21) 64% (bubble if 6-4), 32% home, proj. #4
W0: 99.2 (0-0, #400, D6 #33) 41% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 99.1 (5-5)