Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#592 Crooksville (1-4) 79.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#83 of 110 in Division VI
#20 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-28 H #568 Lancaster Fisher Catholic (3-1 D7 R27), pick: W by 20 (83%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-47 A #235 Duncan Falls Philo (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 29 (93%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-21 A #367 Zanesville Maysville (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 21 (87%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-49 H #66 Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 37 (98%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 22-14 H #607 McConnelsville Morgan (1-4 D4 R15), pick: L by 2 (53%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #611 Vincent Warren (0-5 D3 R11), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #403 New Lexington (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #683 Zanesville West Muskingum (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #84 Thornville Sheridan (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 35 (98%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #249 New Concord John Glenn (2-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#26 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
2.91 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-7%, 2W-41%, 3W-44%, 4W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
5.3% WWWLL 5.48 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
6.8% LLLLL 0.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
36% WLWLL 2.81 pts, out
33% LLWLL 1.76 pts, out
7.5% WLLLL 2.36 pts, out
4.6% LWWLL 4.33 pts, out
(7% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 79.5 (0-4, #589, D6 #80) out
W3: 78.8 (0-3, #602, D6 #85) 1% , proj. out
W2: 79.6 (0-2, #597, D6 #80) 1% , proj. out
W1: 78.5 (0-1, #610, D6 #85) 1% , proj. out
W0: 93.3 (0-0, #491, D6 #50) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 93.8 (4-6)