Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#485 Frankfort Adena (3-1) 90.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#58 of 110 in Division VI
#12 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 31-15 H #625 Greenfield McClain (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 8 (64%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 42-20 H #612 Marion Elgin (1-4 D6 R23), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 15-33 A #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-20 H #534 Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (53%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #594 Chillicothe Huntington (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #497 Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 9 (70%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#80 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 90
Projected record 6-3
13.39 Harbin points (divisor 90)
Projected #6 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-8%, 5W-27%, 6W-38%, 7W-21%, 8W-4%

Playoff chance
72% now (bubble if 5-4), 21% home
73% with a win in next game, and 63% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.00 (5.50-12.00) 4% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 10.33 (7.72-15.61) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 13.39 (10.89-18.78) 96% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
7W: 16.78 (14.22-21.44) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
8W: 20.28 (18.78-22.17) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
4.3% WWWWW 20.28 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Paint Valley 14%

Worst realistic scenario
4.7% WLLLL 7.25 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
12% WWLLL 9.56 pts, 12% in (out, range #6-out) Paint Valley 29%
12% WWLWL 12.83 pts, 94% in, 1% home (#7, range #3-out) Fort Frye 23%
10% WWWLL 13.11 pts, 93% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) Fort Frye 22%
9.1% WWWWL 16.22 pts, 100% in, 45% home (#5, range #1-#7) Shadyside 23%
5.4% WWLLW 13.67 pts, 97% in, 4% home (#6, range #3-out) Fort Frye 22%
5.3% WWLWW 16.83 pts, 100% in, 74% home (#4, range #1-#6) Paint Valley 17%
(37% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 8: Marion Elgin (1-4 D6 R23) over Waynesfield-Goshen (3-2 D7 R28)
Week 10: Waterford (4-1 D7 R27) over Belpre (3-2 D6 R23)
Week 10: Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 9: Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15) over Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
18% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
17% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)
16% Shadyside (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.7% Region 23 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 88.6 (2-1, #507, D6 #62) 48% (need 6-3), 14% home, proj. out
W3: 90.5 (2-0, #490, D6 #56) 63% (bubble if 5-4), 31% home, proj. #6
W2: 88.7 (2-0, #510, D6 #57) 56% (bubble if 5-4), 28% home, proj. #8
W1: 84.2 (1-0, #560, D6 #73) 25% (need 6-3), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 82.4 (0-0, #600, D6 #83) 18% (need 6-3), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 79.7 (2-8)