Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#582 Johnstown Northridge (1-4) 80.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#87 of 106 in Division V
#21 of 26 in Region 19
Eitel team page
Region 19 projections
Region 19 playoff probabilities
Region 19 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-30 H #489 Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 15 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-37 H #331 Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 20 (85%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-27 A #481 Centerburg (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 23-20 A #617 Hebron Lakewood (1-4 D4 R15), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 8-56 H #212 Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #154 Johnstown-Monroe (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 30 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #150 Granville (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #375 Heath (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #537 Utica (1-4 D4 R15), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #385 Newark Catholic (1-4 D6 R23), pick: L by 19 (87%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#57 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 2-8
2.43 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected out of R19 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-46%, 2W-42%, 3W-11%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
4.8% LLWWL 4.51 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
46% LLLLL 0.50 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% LLLWL 1.97 pts, out
8.5% LLWLL 3.04 pts, out
6.8% LLLLW 2.43 pts, out
3.7% LLLWW 3.90 pts, out
(5% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 80.6 (1-3, #579, D5 #86) 1% , proj. out
W3: 78.3 (0-3, #611, D5 #92) out
W2: 79.3 (0-2, #599, D5 #93) 1% , proj. out
W1: 80.5 (0-1, #594, D5 #90) 1% , proj. out
W0: 93.2 (0-0, #495, D5 #73) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 98.0 (6-4)