Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#506 Lore City Buckeye Trail (3-2) 88.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#63 of 110 in Division VI
#14 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-13 H #563 Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-9 A #685 Newcomerstown (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (82%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-16 A #553 Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 54-18 H #593 Uhrichsville Claymont (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-50 A #103 Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 30 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #651 Strasburg-Franklin (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #633 Malvern (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 13 (W8) A #637 New Philadelphia Tuscarawas Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #316 Magnolia Sandy Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #393 East Canton (3-2 D7 R25), pick: L by 6 (63%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#76 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
8.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-5%, 5W-24%, 6W-45%, 7W-24%, 8W-3%

Playoff chance
13% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
14% with a win in next game, and 8% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 6.75 (5.20-10.75) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 8.25 (6.65-13.35) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 10.90 (9.25-14.35) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 14.35 (13.20-15.90) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
3.0% WWWWW 14.35 pts, 99% in, 5% home (#6, range #2-out) Fort Frye 20%

Worst realistic scenario
2.0% WLLLL 4.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
31% WWWLL 8.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
16% WWWLW 10.80 pts, 25% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Frye 28%
8.7% WWLLL 6.45 pts, out
6.6% WLWLL 6.40 pts, out
6.0% WWWWL 11.55 pts, 51% in (#8, range #5-out) Grandview Heights 25%
5.1% LWWLL 7.05 pts, out
(22% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27) over Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 10: Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27) over Sarahsville Shenandoah (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 7: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Howard East Knox (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 7: Lancaster Fisher Catholic (3-1 D7 R27) over Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 10: Waterford (4-1 D7 R27) over Belpre (3-2 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
24% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
23% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
21% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
14% Galion Northmor (5-0)
11% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.7 (3-1, #495, D6 #58) 13% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 88.4 (2-1, #510, D6 #63) 8% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 90.9 (2-0, #493, D6 #53) 28% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W1: 89.1 (1-0, #506, D6 #60) 17% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 87.0 (0-0, #553, D6 #70) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 86.6 (4-6)