Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#532 Lucasville Valley (2-3) 85.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#67 of 110 in Division VI
#16 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 40-57 H #441 Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 20-21 H #472 Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 44-6 A #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 15 (W4) L 28-60 A Raceland KY (5-1 D6)
Sep 21 (W5) W 48-14 H Fairview (Ashland) KY (0-4 D7)
Sep 28 (W6) H #180 Waverly (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #277 West Portsmouth Portsmouth West (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #545 Belpre (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #77 Wheelersburg (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 33 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #325 Minford (5-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 12 (76%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#72 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
3.88 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-32%, 3W-50%, 4W-16%, 5W-2%

Playoff chance
1% now
7% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.53 (8.62-13.21) 26% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WLWLL 8.04 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
32% LLLLL 1.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
40% LLWLL 3.78 pts, out
7.9% LLWLW 7.36 pts, out
5.5% LLLLW 4.79 pts, out
4.2% LWWLL 6.75 pts, out
3.2% LWLLL 3.98 pts, out
(5% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
32% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
20% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
18% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
14% Galion Northmor (5-0)
14% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.2 (1-3, #503, D6 #61) 1% , proj. out
W3: 89.1 (1-2, #503, D6 #62) 6% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 86.3 (0-2, #537, D6 #67) 5% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 85.6 (0-1, #552, D6 #71) 10% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 93.2 (0-0, #496, D6 #51) 42% (need 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 87.3 (3-7)