Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#473 Nelsonville-York (1-4) 92.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#55 of 110 in Division VI
#10 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 7-34 H #328 Glouster Trimble (4-0 D7 R27), pick: W by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-38 H #260 Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 6-22 A #325 Minford (5-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 54-28 A #635 Bidwell River Valley (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-31 A #180 Waverly (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #464 Pomeroy Meigs (2-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #517 Wellston (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #619 Albany Alexander (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #533 McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #358 The Plains Athens (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 5 (62%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#13 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
7.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-8%, 3W-26%, 4W-37%, 5W-23%, 6W-5%

Playoff chance
13% now (need 6-4), 1% home
20% with a win in next game, and 5% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 7.85 (5.90-12.05) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 10.75 (8.60-13.55) 31% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.70 (12.65-15.35) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
5.2% WWWWW 13.70 pts, 96% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) Fort Frye 20%

Worst realistic scenario
4.6% LLWLL 3.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
9.9% WWWWL 9.65 pts, 8% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Frye 24%
9.3% LWWWL 7.20 pts, out
7.4% WLWWL 7.40 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.0% LLWWL 4.95 pts, out
6.3% WWWLL 7.80 pts, out
6.0% LWWLL 5.40 pts, out
(44% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15) over Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23)
Week 6: The Plains Athens (4-1 D3 R11) over Logan (1-4 D2 R7)
Week 8: over Woodlan IN (4-2 D4)
Week 6: Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13) over Wooster Triway (2-3 D5 R17)
Week 10: Waterford (4-1 D7 R27) over Belpre (3-2 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
24% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
22% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
18% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)
13% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 91.5 (1-3, #478, D6 #54) 15% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 90.9 (0-3, #484, D6 #52) 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 91.6 (0-2, #486, D6 #51) 22% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home, proj. out
W1: 96.1 (0-1, #423, D6 #37) 48% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home, proj. #7
W0: 109.4 (0-0, #255, D6 #10) 93% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home, proj. #2
Last year 118.6 (13-1)