Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#623 Arcanum (1-4) 76.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#89 of 110 in Division VI
#22 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 27-49 H #250 Jamestown Greeneview (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 20 (83%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 3-6 A #571 New Paris National Trail (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-38 H #482 Ansonia (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-7 A #708 Bradford (0-5 D7 R28), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-24 H #354 Covington (2-3 D6 R24), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #494 Tipp City Bethel (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #444 Lewisburg Tri-County North (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #273 Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #610 Union City Mississinawa Valley (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #672 New Madison Tri-Village (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 5 (62%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#53 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
3.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-10%, 2W-40%, 3W-38%, 4W-11%, 5W-1%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
4.6% WLLWW 6.00 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
9.7% LLLLL 0.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
27% LLLLW 1.80 pts, out
21% LLLWW 3.60 pts, out
8.6% LLLWL 2.15 pts, out
5.9% WLLLW 4.55 pts, out
5.2% LWLLW 4.10 pts, out
4.1% LWLWW 5.90 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 75.4 (1-3, #626, D6 #89) 1% , proj. out
W3: 75.3 (0-3, #628, D6 #90) out
W2: 78.4 (0-2, #609, D6 #82) 1% , proj. out
W1: 81.4 (0-1, #586, D6 #78) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 83.8 (0-0, #590, D6 #80) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 81.4 (4-6)