Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#299 Galion Northmor (5-0) 105.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#22 of 110 in Division VI
#2 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 47-36 A #612 Marion Elgin (1-4 D6 R23), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-26 H #539 Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 19 (84%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 36-16 H #419 Lucas (3-2 D7 R27), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 32-0 A #574 Fredericktown (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 23 (89%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-7 H #507 Danville (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #667 Cardington-Lincoln (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #414 Howard East Knox (5-0 D6 R23), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #481 Centerburg (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 11 (75%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #237 Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 5 (61%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#78 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
17.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-5%, 8W-31%, 9W-46%, 10W-18%

Playoff chance
97% now (bubble if 7-3), 64% home
97% with a win in next game, and 92% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 11.45 (8.95-15.95) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
8W: 14.35 (11.70-19.30) 99% in, 22% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 17.65 (14.65-22.45) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
10W: 21.20 (19.25-23.25) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #1 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
18% WWWWW 21.20 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#1, range #1-#5) Southeastern 13%

Worst realistic scenario
4.8% WLWLL 11.25 pts, 50% in (out, range #5-out) Fort Frye 30%

Most likely other scenarios
31% WWWWL 17.45 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #1-#7) Shadyside 20%
17% WLWWL 14.05 pts, 99% in, 15% home (#6, range #2-out) Shadyside 22%
9.7% WWWLL 14.65 pts, 100% in, 27% home (#5, range #2-#8) Shadyside 22%
9.3% WLWWW 17.80 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#3, range #1-#7) Shadyside 18%
5.2% WWWLW 18.50 pts, 100% in, 95% home (#3, range #1-#6) Shadyside 16%
2.9% WLWLW 15.15 pts, 99% in, 35% home (#5, range #2-out) Shadyside 21%
(2% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 7: London (5-0 D4 R16) over Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 10: Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21) over Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23)
Week 7: Lucas (3-2 D7 R27) over Cadiz Harrison Central (1-4 D4 R15)
Week 6: Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15) over Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Shadyside (4-1)
12% Frankfort Adena (3-1)
11% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
11% Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1)
11% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)

Championship probabilities
18% Region 23 champ
0.4% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.4 (4-0, #289, D6 #20) 97% (need 7-3), 71% home, proj. #1
W3: 104.8 (3-0, #303, D6 #19) 93% (need 7-3), 66% home, proj. #3
W2: 94.4 (2-0, #438, D6 #35) 54% (need 7-3), 21% home, proj. #5
W1: 94.8 (1-0, #444, D6 #39) 56% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home, proj. #8
W0: 97.0 (0-0, #443, D6 #38) 48% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. #7
Last year 106.2 (8-3)