Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#26 Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0) 135.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#1 of 110 in Division VI
#1 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-0 A Woodlan IN (4-2 D4)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-7 H #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 34 (96%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 51-7 H #356 Rockford Parkway (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 35 (97%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 53-7 A #404 Delphos St John's (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 26 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 44-20 H #138 Anna (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #147 St Henry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #333 Versailles (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 31 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #101 Minster (4-1 D7 R28), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #187 Fort Recovery (2-3 D6 R24), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #34 Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 5 (62%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Key games this week
Winning & losing streaks
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#8 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
21.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #4 seed in R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-4%, 8W-21%, 9W-46%, 10W-29%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 88% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 15.45 (13.40-19.40) 96% in, 10% home, proj. #6 (#4-out)
8W: 18.25 (15.55-22.35) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #4 (#2-#8)
9W: 21.35 (18.65-24.70) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #4 (#1-#5)
10W: 24.95 (22.70-27.25) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #3 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
29% WWWWW 24.95 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Perry 23%

Worst realistic scenario
5.7% LWWWL 18.15 pts, 100% in, 57% home (#4, range #3-#8) Spencerville 40%

Most likely other scenarios
27% WWWWL 20.90 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#4, range #2-#5) Spencerville 49%
9.5% WWLWW 21.80 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#4, range #1-#5) Spencerville 45%
9.1% WWLWL 17.80 pts, 100% in, 61% home (#4, range #3-#8) Spencerville 51%
6.1% LWWWW 22.20 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#4, range #2-#5) Spencerville 34%
2.6% WWWLW 22.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Spencerville 36%
2.2% WWWLL 18.80 pts, 100% in, 71% home (#4, range #3-#7) Spencerville 44%
(9% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28) over Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 7: Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22) over Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 8: Woodlan IN (4-2 D4) over
Week 7: West Jefferson (4-1 D5 R20) over Mechanicsburg (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 9: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
37% Spencerville (4-1)
17% Lima Perry (4-1)
15% Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0)
8% St Henry (4-1)
5% West Liberty-Salem (4-1)

Championship probabilities
49% Region 24 champ
40% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 132.6 (4-0, #37, D6 #2) 98% (need 7-3), 74% home, proj. #4
W3: 132.4 (3-0, #38, D6 #2) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home, proj. #4
W2: 132.6 (2-0, #36, D6 #1) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home, proj. #3
W1: 133.1 (1-0, #32, D6 #1) 97% (bubble if 6-4), 83% home, proj. #3
W0: 135.1 (0-0, #29, D6 #1) 98% (need 6-4), 89% home, proj. #1
Last year 142.7 (15-0)