Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#577 Miamisburg Dayton Christian (3-2) 80.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#78 of 110 in Division VI
#19 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-42 H #467 Troy Christian (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-41 H #494 Tipp City Bethel (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 20-14 H #621 Dayton Ponitz Tech (0-5 D3 R12), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 26-0 H #664 Crestline (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 41-0 A #716 Dayton Jefferson Township (0-5 D7 R28), pick: W by 28 (94%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #710 Cincinnati College Prep (0-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #691 Cincinnati Clark Montessori (0-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #657 Lockland (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 20 (W9) A #630 St Bernard-Elmwood Place (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #665 Hamilton New Miami (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 13 (77%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#100 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 7-3
8.47 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-6%, 6W-24%, 7W-42%, 8W-28%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 8.47 (6.56-11.46) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 10.21 (8.92-12.63) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
28% WWWWW 10.21 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% WWLLL 4.91 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% WWWLW 8.21 pts, out
12% WWLWW 8.52 pts, out
8.0% WWWWL 8.47 pts, out
7.4% WWLLW 6.47 pts, out
5.1% WWWLL 6.58 pts, out
3.7% WLWWW 9.04 pts, out
(18% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
58% Coldwater (5-0)
33% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
8% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 80.5 (2-2, #581, D6 #78) 1% , proj. out
W3: 80.0 (1-2, #594, D6 #80) 1% , proj. out
W2: 75.6 (0-2, #626, D6 #88) 1% , proj. out
W1: 77.8 (0-1, #618, D6 #89) 12% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 86.7 (0-0, #556, D6 #71) 46% (need 8-2), 12% home, proj. out
Last year 91.0 (9-2)