Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#466 Milford Center Fairbanks (3-2) 92.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#51 of 110 in Division VI
#8 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 3-46 A #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 16 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 27-12 H #587 Lewistown Indian Lake (0-5 D5 R18), pick: L by 13 (74%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-27 H #250 Jamestown Greeneview (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 56-14 A #654 London Madison-Plains (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 62-7 H #602 South Charleston Southeastern Local (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #263 West Jefferson (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #639 Springfield Northeastern (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #400 West Liberty-Salem (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #620 North Lewisburg Triad (4-1 D7 R28), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #173 Mechanicsburg (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 21 (89%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#55 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
7.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-1%, 4W-13%, 5W-45%, 6W-33%, 7W-8%

Playoff chance
13% now (need 7-3), 1% home
40% with a win in next game, and 8% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 7.20 (5.00-12.20) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.20 (8.10-14.25) 17% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.52 (11.35-17.20) 92% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.5% LWWWW 13.85 pts, 97% in, 5% home (#6, range #3-out) Fort Frye 20%

Worst realistic scenario
7.8% LWLLL 4.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
33% LWLWL 7.00 pts, out
19% LWWWL 9.85 pts, 10% in (out, range #5-out) Fort Frye 28%
7.0% WWLWL 10.20 pts, 14% in (out, range #6-out) Grandview Heights 28%
4.6% LWWLL 7.85 pts, out
4.3% LLLWL 5.85 pts, out
4.2% LWLWW 10.80 pts, 29% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Frye 27%
(17% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: London Madison-Plains (0-5 D5 R20) over Cedarville (1-4 D7 R28)
Week 7: Lewistown Indian Lake (0-5 D5 R18) over St Paris Graham Local (1-4 D4 R16)
Week 10: South Charleston Southeastern Local (1-4 D7 R28) over Springfield Greenon (2-3 D5 R18)
Week 6: South Charleston Southeastern Local (1-4 D7 R28) over Cedarville (1-4 D7 R28)
Week 10: Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
21% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
19% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)
13% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 92.4 (2-2, #470, D6 #53) 10% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 91.8 (1-2, #472, D6 #47) 8% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 96.3 (1-1, #412, D6 #31) 39% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. #7
W1: 86.2 (0-1, #542, D6 #66) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 90.1 (0-0, #525, D6 #62) 14% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 91.8 (5-5)