Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#653 New Lebanon Dixie (1-4) 71.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#98 of 110 in Division VI
#26 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 12-35 H #564 West Alexandria Twin Valley South (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 19-27 H #672 New Madison Tri-Village (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 12 (73%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-47 A #306 Brookville (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 29 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 22-21 H #597 Carlisle (0-5 D5 R20), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-41 H #566 Dayton Northridge (2-3 D4 R16), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #106 Middletown Madison (5-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 38 (99%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #418 Waynesville (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #530 Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #448 West Milton Milton-Union (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #558 Eaton (0-5 D4 R16), pick: L by 14 (80%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#87 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-53%, 2W-37%, 3W-9%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
4.8% LWLLL 3.70 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
53% LLLLL 0.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LLLLW 1.85 pts, out
12% LLWLL 2.70 pts, out
4.8% LLLWL 3.30 pts, out
3.2% LLWLW 3.25 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 75.0 (1-3, #629, D6 #90) out
W3: 69.3 (0-3, #667, D6 #100) out
W2: 70.9 (0-2, #660, D6 #101) 1% , proj. out
W1: 78.7 (0-1, #609, D6 #84) 1% , proj. out
W0: 89.4 (0-0, #532, D6 #65) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 93.8 (5-5)