Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#571 New Paris National Trail (3-2) 81.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#76 of 110 in Division VI
#18 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-6 A #681 Cincinnati Riverview East Academy (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 6-3 H #623 Arcanum (1-4 D6 R24), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 3-38 H #273 Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 25 (91%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 20-26 A #564 West Alexandria Twin Valley South (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 45-8 A #672 New Madison Tri-Village (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #444 Lewisburg Tri-County North (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #482 Ansonia (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #610 Union City Mississinawa Valley (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #190 Fort Loramie (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #354 Covington (2-3 D6 R24), pick: L by 23 (91%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#93 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-18%, 4W-43%, 5W-31%, 6W-8%

Playoff chance
2% now
5% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.30 (7.10-12.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.60 (9.40-14.35) 13% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.8% WWWLL 11.55 pts, 10% in (out, range #7-out) Coldwater 56%

Worst realistic scenario
18% LLLLL 4.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
25% LLWLL 6.60 pts, out
13% LWWLL 9.30 pts, out
9.0% LWLLL 7.50 pts, out
8.7% WLWLL 8.90 pts, out
6.1% WLLLL 7.10 pts, out
2.9% WWLLL 9.75 pts, out
(14% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
43% Coldwater (5-0)
31% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
14% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
11% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)
1% St Henry (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 79.3 (2-2, #594, D6 #81) 1% , proj. out
W3: 82.3 (2-1, #573, D6 #76) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 83.9 (2-0, #557, D6 #74) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 79.5 (1-0, #598, D6 #82) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 79.3 (0-0, #623, D6 #88) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 75.8 (3-7)