Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#356 Rockford Parkway (1-4) 100.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#28 of 110 in Division VI
#9 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 35-59 A #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 13 (73%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 21-28 H #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-51 A #26 Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 35 (97%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 21-7 H #333 Versailles (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 35-62 A #101 Minster (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #187 Fort Recovery (2-3 D6 R24), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #294 New Bremen (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #404 Delphos St John's (1-4 D7 R28), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #138 Anna (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #147 St Henry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 15 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#2 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-13%, 2W-38%, 3W-33%, 4W-13%, 5W-2%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.7% LWWLW 7.25 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
13% LLLLL 1.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LLWLL 2.55 pts, out
11% LWWLL 4.85 pts, out
7.8% LWLLL 3.60 pts, out
6.8% WLWLL 4.60 pts, out
4.7% WLLLL 3.65 pts, out
4.2% LLWLW 5.20 pts, out
(29% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 100.6 (1-3, #355, D6 #27) 1% , proj. out
W3: 92.5 (0-3, #463, D6 #45) out
W2: 91.3 (0-2, #488, D6 #52) out
W1: 90.8 (0-1, #485, D6 #51) 1% , proj. out
W0: 95.8 (0-0, #460, D6 #43) 1% , proj. out
Last year 98.2 (1-9)