Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#147 St Henry (4-1) 117.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#6 of 110 in Division VI
#3 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 22-0 A #354 Covington (2-3 D6 R24), pick: W by 19 (81%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 62-0 H #558 Eaton (0-5 D4 R16), pick: W by 23 (87%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 37-7 H #404 Delphos St John's (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 27-28 A #138 Anna (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 36-0 A #294 New Bremen (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #26 Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #101 Minster (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #187 Fort Recovery (2-3 D6 R24), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #34 Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #356 Rockford Parkway (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games this week
Best team performances
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#12 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
11.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-20%, 6W-41%, 7W-28%, 8W-7%

Playoff chance
39% now (need 7-3), 2% home
79% with a win in next game, and 31% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.05 (6.85-13.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.60 (8.55-16.85) 18% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.50 (11.50-19.65) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
8W: 17.90 (15.15-21.85) 100% in, 18% home, proj. #5 (#3-#8)

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WWWLW 17.60 pts, 100% in, 23% home (#5, range #3-#8) Marion Local 40%

Worst realistic scenario
2.9% LLLLL 7.40 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% LLWLW 10.80 pts, 5% in (out, range #6-out) Coldwater 56%
13% LWWLW 13.80 pts, 78% in (#8, range #5-out) Lima Central Catholic 34%
13% LLLLW 8.70 pts, out
10% LWLLW 11.70 pts, 13% in (out, range #6-out) Coldwater 48%
4.6% LLWWW 14.55 pts, 92% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Lima Central Catholic 30%
3.8% LLWLL 9.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(31% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: New Bremen (3-2 D7 R28) over Versailles (2-3 D5 R18)
Week 10: Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 6: Eaton (0-5 D4 R16) over Monroe (0-5 D3 R12)
Week 9: Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2 D7 R28) over Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 8: Cincinnati Madeira (3-2 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
28% Coldwater (5-0)
25% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
22% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
21% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)
3% Spencerville (4-1)

Championship probabilities
1.1% Region 24 champ
0.5% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 117.0 (3-1, #155, D6 #7) 44% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. #7
W3: 119.3 (3-0, #126, D6 #5) 55% (need 7-3), 13% home, proj. #7
W2: 116.9 (2-0, #151, D6 #6) 49% (need 7-3), 10% home, proj. out
W1: 116.1 (1-0, #145, D6 #4) 53% (need 7-3), 16% home, proj. #8
W0: 117.2 (0-0, #157, D6 #4) 45% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home, proj. #7
Last year 123.4 (6-4)