Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#494 Tipp City Bethel (3-2) 89.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#60 of 110 in Division VI
#15 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-18 H #566 Dayton Northridge (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 18 (81%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-7 A #577 Miamisburg Dayton Christian (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 63-19 H #672 New Madison Tri-Village (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 20 (86%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 19-28 A #482 Ansonia (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 20 (W5) L 28-52 A #273 Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #623 Arcanum (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #354 Covington (2-3 D6 R24), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #444 Lewisburg Tri-County North (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #708 Bradford (0-5 D7 R28), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #610 Union City Mississinawa Valley (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 11 (75%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#71 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
10.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-2%, 5W-17%, 6W-43%, 7W-32%, 8W-7%

Playoff chance
20% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
22% with a win in next game, and 10% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.85 (6.35-12.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.60 (8.50-14.10) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.80 (10.40-16.40) 41% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 15.00 (12.40-17.50) 92% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
6.5% WWWWW 15.00 pts, 92% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Mechanicsburg 29%

Worst realistic scenario
7.9% WLLWL 8.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
29% WLLWW 10.40 pts, 1% in (out, range #6-out)
16% WLWWW 12.60 pts, 37% in (out, range #5-out) Lima Central Catholic 43%
12% WWLWW 12.75 pts, 40% in (out, range #5-out) Coldwater 41%
6.2% LLLWW 9.10 pts, out
4.3% WLWWL 10.75 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)
3.5% LLWWW 11.40 pts, 7% in (out, range #7-out) Coldwater 60%
(15% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Cincinnati Madeira (3-2 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 10: Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 9: Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2 D7 R28) over Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 7: Minster (4-1 D7 R28) over St Henry (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 10: Dayton Northridge (2-3 D4 R16) over Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
37% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
36% Coldwater (5-0)
17% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
9% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 90.6 (3-1, #488, D6 #57) 39% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 95.3 (3-0, #428, D6 #37) 68% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. #5
W2: 93.5 (2-0, #451, D6 #38) 52% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. #8
W1: 89.4 (1-0, #503, D6 #59) 28% (need 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 93.6 (0-0, #488, D6 #48) 38% (need 8-2), 9% home, proj. out
Last year 99.0 (9-2)