Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#418 Waynesville (3-2) 96.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#52 of 106 in Division V
#11 of 26 in Region 20
Eitel team page
Region 20 projections
Region 20 playoff probabilities
Region 20 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-0 H #554 Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 8-40 A #250 Jamestown Greeneview (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 10 (69%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 20-8 H #521 Blanchester (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-49 A #113 Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 26 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 31-17 H #530 Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #448 West Milton Milton-Union (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #653 New Lebanon Dixie (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #597 Carlisle (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #566 Dayton Northridge (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #106 Middletown Madison (5-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 27 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#51 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
10.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R20 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-2%, 5W-15%, 6W-44%, 7W-37%, 8W-2%

Playoff chance
22% now (bubble if 7-3), 2% home
37% with a win in next game, and 6% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.75 (5.60-14.00) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.30 (7.55-15.80) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 12.65 (10.25-18.30) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 17.30 (15.50-19.00) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #4 (#2-#8)

Best realistic scenario
34% WWWWL 12.55 pts, 43% in (out, range #5-out) Wheelersburg 57%

Worst realistic scenario
6.0% LWWLL 8.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
29% LWWWL 10.15 pts, 2% in (out, range #6-out) Wheelersburg 83%
6.7% WWWLL 10.55 pts, 5% in (out, range #7-out) Wheelersburg 69%
4.6% WWLWL 11.60 pts, 19% in (out, range #5-out) Wheelersburg 66%
3.9% LWLWL 9.20 pts, out
2.9% WLWWL 11.55 pts, 15% in (out, range #6-out) Wheelersburg 78%
2.5% LLWWL 9.00 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20) over Batavia Clermont Northeastern (3-2 D5 R20)
Week 5: Glouster Trimble (4-0 D7 R27) over Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy (2-2 D5 R20)
Week 8: Blanchester (0-5 D5 R20) over Batavia Clermont Northeastern (3-2 D5 R20)
Week 10: Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24) over Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20)
Week 6: Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant (3-2 D6 R23) over Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
48% Wheelersburg (4-1)
26% Middletown Madison (5-0)
6% Minford (5-0)
6% West Jefferson (4-1)
5% Jamestown Greeneview (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 94.7 (2-2, #439, D5 #54) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 95.7 (2-1, #419, D5 #54) 13% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 94.3 (1-1, #440, D5 #63) 15% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 95.8 (1-0, #428, D5 #57) 18% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 90.3 (0-0, #522, D5 #78) 5% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 84.9 (1-9)