Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#564 West Alexandria Twin Valley South (3-2) 82.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#74 of 110 in Division VI
#16 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-12 A #653 New Lebanon Dixie (1-4 D6 R24), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 15-30 H #530 Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-36 A #444 Lewisburg Tri-County North (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 12 (74%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 26-20 H #571 New Paris National Trail (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 25-18 A #610 Union City Mississinawa Valley (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #190 Fort Loramie (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 04 (W7) H #672 New Madison Tri-Village (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #482 Ansonia (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #354 Covington (2-3 D6 R24), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #273 Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#88 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-9%, 4W-50%, 5W-34%, 6W-7%

Playoff chance
2% now
15% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.35 (7.20-12.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.10 (10.15-14.70) 20% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.5% LWWWL 11.70 pts, 12% in (out, range #7-out) Coldwater 42%

Worst realistic scenario
8.6% LLLLL 5.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
44% LWLLL 6.50 pts, out
19% LWWLL 9.35 pts, out
9.0% LWLWL 8.90 pts, out
3.4% LLWLL 7.88 pts, out
3.2% LWLLW 10.00 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(9% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
37% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
36% Coldwater (5-0)
16% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
11% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 82.2 (2-2, #568, D6 #73) 2% (bubble if 6-4), proj. out
W3: 78.7 (1-2, #605, D6 #86) 1% , proj. out
W2: 82.2 (1-1, #572, D6 #77) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 89.7 (1-0, #496, D6 #56) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 83.0 (0-0, #594, D6 #81) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 78.9 (3-7)