Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#400 West Liberty-Salem (4-1) 97.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#36 of 110 in Division VI
#10 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-3 A #551 St Paris Graham Local (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 29-30 H #413 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 44-6 A #666 Cedarville (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 24 (90%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 63-0 H #698 Springfield Catholic Central (0-5 D7 R28), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 51-38 A #556 Springfield Greenon (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #173 Mechanicsburg (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #620 North Lewisburg Triad (4-1 D7 R28), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #466 Milford Center Fairbanks (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #263 West Jefferson (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #639 Springfield Northeastern (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#92 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 7-3
11.84 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #8 seed in R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-4%, 6W-28%, 7W-46%, 8W-19%, 9W-2%

Playoff chance
30% now (need 8-2), 1% home
79% with a win in next game, and 20% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 9.37 (7.20-13.46) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 11.84 (9.67-17.40) 22% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 15.17 (12.90-18.70) 93% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
9W: 18.83 (17.08-20.22) 100% in, 30% home, proj. #5 (#2-#7)

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WWWWW 18.83 pts, 100% in, 30% home (#5, range #2-#7) Mechanicsburg 47%

Worst realistic scenario
2.6% LLLLW 6.90 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
31% LWWLW 11.49 pts, 12% in (out, range #6-out) Coldwater 46%
18% LWLLW 9.07 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
11% LWWWW 14.77 pts, 89% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Lima Central Catholic 28%
6.7% WWWLW 15.52 pts, 97% in, 1% home (#6, range #4-out) Marion Local 30%
6.3% LWLWW 12.34 pts, 27% in (out, range #5-out) Coldwater 47%
4.9% LLWLW 9.42 pts, out
(17% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Cedarville (1-4 D7 R28) over London Madison-Plains (0-5 D5 R20)
Week 10: Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 6: Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18) over Covington (2-3 D6 R24)
Week 9: Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18) over Lewisburg Tri-County North (3-2 D6 R24)
Week 7: St Paris Graham Local (1-4 D4 R16) over Lewistown Indian Lake (0-5 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Coldwater (5-0)
29% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
22% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
18% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)
1% Spencerville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.6 (3-1, #413, D6 #39) 30% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. #8
W3: 95.8 (2-1, #418, D6 #35) 21% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 95.8 (1-1, #420, D6 #33) 17% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 102.4 (1-0, #326, D6 #20) 46% (bubble if 8-2), 11% home, proj. #7
W0: 102.7 (0-0, #353, D6 #28) 55% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home, proj. #6
Last year 102.0 (8-2)