Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#584 Williamsburg (1-4) 80.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#79 of 110 in Division VI
#20 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-14 H #417 Batavia (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 12 (71%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-57 A #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 12 (73%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 21-8 A #681 Cincinnati Riverview East Academy (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 35-55 H #227 Hillsboro (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-34 H #325 Minford (5-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 22 (89%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #686 Sabina East Clinton (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #521 Blanchester (0-5 D5 R20), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #634 Fayetteville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #554 Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #560 Batavia Clermont Northeastern (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 3 (58%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#28 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
7.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-12%, 3W-32%, 4W-35%, 5W-17%, 6W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.50 (7.35-11.65) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.55 (10.70-12.45) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.1% WWWWW 11.55 pts, 8% in (out, range #6-out)

Worst realistic scenario
7.1% WLLLL 2.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% WLWLL 5.10 pts, out
8.9% WLWWL 7.15 pts, out
7.5% WLWLW 8.00 pts, out
6.6% WLWWW 9.85 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.3% WLLWL 4.60 pts, out
5.7% WWWLL 6.80 pts, out
(43% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
52% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
33% Coldwater (5-0)
7% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)
7% Mechanicsburg (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 79.6 (1-3, #588, D6 #79) 2% , proj. out
W3: 77.1 (1-2, #616, D6 #88) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 73.4 (0-2, #643, D6 #93) 1% , proj. out
W1: 75.3 (0-1, #641, D6 #95) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 76.8 (0-0, #643, D6 #94) 5% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 68.1 (1-9)