Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#416 Ashland Mapleton (4-1) 96.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#19 of 108 in Division VII
#3 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 27-61 H #289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 56-21 H #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 16 (79%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-11 A #535 Rittman (2-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-22 H #498 Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 21-13 A #479 Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #430 Greenwich South Central (5-0 D7 R26), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #376 Norwalk St Paul (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #578 Plymouth (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #687 New London (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #586 Collins Western Reserve (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 19 (87%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#29 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
14.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-10%, 7W-36%, 8W-39%, 9W-15%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-4), 83% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 9.70 (7.35-14.30) 97% in, 28% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
7W: 11.55 (9.45-17.40) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
8W: 14.20 (12.35-18.05) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
9W: 17.10 (16.00-19.05) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
15% WWWWW 17.10 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Leetonia 16%

Worst realistic scenario
4.0% LLLWW 9.00 pts, 94% in, 13% home (#6, range #2-out) St John School 22%

Most likely other scenarios
22% LLWWW 11.05 pts, 100% in, 61% home (#4, range #1-#8) St John School 24%
20% WLWWW 14.25 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Toronto 14%
14% LWWWW 13.80 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Valley Christian School 15%
3.8% WLLWW 12.35 pts, 100% in, 90% home (#3, range #1-#6) St John School 19%
3.6% LLWWL 9.75 pts, 99% in, 24% home (#5, range #2-out) St John School 24%
3.2% WLWWL 13.10 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#2, range #1-#6) St John School 16%
(15% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Wellington (1-4 D6 R21) over Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14)
Week 8: Magnolia Sandy Valley (4-1 D5 R17) over East Canton (3-2 D7 R25)
Week 7: Rittman (2-3 D7 R25) over Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5 D5 R17)
Week 7: Wickliffe (5-0 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Heights (4-1 D7 R25)
Week 10: Lore City Buckeye Trail (3-2 D6 R23) over East Canton (3-2 D7 R25)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Ashtabula St John School (4-1)
13% Youngstown Valley Christian School (4-1)
11% Toronto (2-3)
10% Leetonia (3-2)
9% East Canton (3-2)

Championship probabilities
24% Region 25 champ
1.0% Division 7 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.2 (3-1, #434, D7 #19) 97% (need 5-5), 78% home, proj. #3
W3: 89.4 (2-1, #502, D7 #27) 74% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home, proj. #6
W2: 86.9 (1-1, #529, D7 #31) 41% (need 6-4), 12% home, proj. #8
W1: 84.4 (0-1, #558, D7 #35) 25% (need 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W0: 88.1 (0-0, #544, D7 #31) 32% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 89.7 (5-5)