Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#622 Ashtabula St John School (6-3) 75.1

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#58 of 108 in Division VII
#15 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-0 A #696 Vienna Mathews (1-8 D7 R25), pick: L by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 26-6 H #682 Newbury (1-8 D7 R25), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 19-14 A #639 Fairport Harbor Fairport Harding (3-6 D7 R25), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-61 H #479 Windham (8-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 51-16 A #694 Andover Pymatuning Valley (2-7 D6 R21), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 28-8 A #705 Morral Ridgedale (2-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 06 (W7) L 0-52 A #614 Crestline (4-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 11 (W8) W 35-20 A #567 Ashtabula Edgewood (3-6 D4 R13), pick: L by 16 (84%)
Oct 20 (W9) L 16-18 H #614 Crestline (4-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Oct 27 (W10) H #626 Southington Chalker (6-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 2 (55%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games this week
Biggest upsets
Playoff streaks & droughts
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#96 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 7-3
10.30 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected #5 seed in R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-45%, 7W-55%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-4), 15% home
100% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 7.76 (7.40-9.03) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
7W: 10.30 (9.95-11.58) 100% in, 26% home, proj. #5 (#3-#7)

Playoff scenarios
56% W 10.30 pts, 100% in, 26% home (#5, range #3-#7) East Canton 80%
45% L 7.76 pts, 99% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Windham 46%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Lore City Buckeye Trail (5-4 D6 R23) over East Canton (6-3 D7 R25)
Week 10: Fairport Harbor Fairport Harding (3-6 D7 R25) over Richmond Heights (3-6 D7 R25)
Week 10: Mantua Crestwood (4-5 D5 R17) over Youngstown Valley Christian School (5-4 D7 R25)
Week 10: Morral Ridgedale (2-5 D7 R27) over Grove City Christian (3-6 D7 R27)
Week 10: Ravenna Southeast (4-5 D4 R13) over Garrettsville Garfield (5-4 D5 R17)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
46% East Canton (6-3)
21% Windham (8-1)
20% Ashland Mapleton (6-3)
9% Cuyahoga Heights (7-2)
5% Youngstown Valley Christian School (5-4)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 75.1 (6-3, #622, D7 #58) 99% (need 6-4), 15% home, proj. #5
W8: 76.7 (6-2, #610, D7 #53) 98% (need 6-4), 41% home, proj. #5
W7: 72.3 (5-2, #645, D7 #66) 72% (need 6-4), 6% home, proj. #6
W6: 76.6 (5-1, #615, D7 #54) 93% (need 6-4), 25% home, proj. #6
W5: 77.3 (4-1, #606, D7 #51) 97% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home, proj. #5
W4: 76.6 (3-1, #619, D7 #55) 86% (need 6-4), 30% home, proj. #4
W3: 75.6 (3-0, #627, D7 #57) 78% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home, proj. #5
W2: 72.4 (2-0, #652, D7 #65) 47% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. #5
W1: 71.3 (1-0, #662, D7 #67) 34% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home, proj. out
W0: 61.1 (0-0, #704, D7 #97) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 62.6 (2-7)