Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#293 Attica Seneca East (4-1) 105.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#21 of 110 in Division VI
#3 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 41-12 N #509 Castalia Margaretta (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 20-2 H #385 Newark Catholic (1-4 D6 R23), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-6 H #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 30 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 47-13 A #616 Bucyrus (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 24-31 A #206 Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #323 Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #383 Carey (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #518 Upper Sandusky (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #435 North Robinson Colonel Crawford (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 12 (77%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #699 New Washington Buckeye Central (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 37 (98%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#46 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
15.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-7%, 7W-28%, 8W-42%, 9W-23%

Playoff chance
83% now (bubble if 7-3), 56% home
95% with a win in next game, and 66% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 9.75 (7.40-12.95) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.40 (9.90-15.80) 64% in, 4% home, proj. #8 (#1-out)
8W: 15.15 (12.70-18.45) 99% in, 75% home, proj. #3 (#1-out)
9W: 18.00 (15.90-20.35) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #1 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
23% WWWWW 18.00 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#1, range #1-#5) Hicksville 11%

Worst realistic scenario
3.5% LLWLW 9.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
17% LWWWW 14.85 pts, 99% in, 63% home (#4, range #1-out) Northwood 17%
14% WLWWW 15.20 pts, 99% in, 79% home (#3, range #1-out) Northwood 16%
11% LLWWW 12.05 pts, 51% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Wynford 25%
8.2% WWWLW 15.35 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#3, range #1-#8) Northwood 16%
6.1% LWWLW 12.35 pts, 66% in, 4% home (#8, range #2-out) Wynford 25%
4.6% WLWLW 12.60 pts, 69% in, 3% home (#8, range #2-out) Hillsdale 17%
(13% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Newark Catholic (1-4 D6 R23) over Heath (2-3 D5 R19)
Week 7: Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24) over Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Castalia Margaretta (3-2 D6 R22) over Kansas Lakota (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 10: Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18) over Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22)
Week 8: Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18) over Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
13% Northwood (4-1)
11% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
11% Gibsonburg (4-1)
11% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
11% Columbus Grove (3-2)

Championship probabilities
18% Region 22 champ
0.4% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 106.5 (4-0, #276, D6 #18) 92% (need 7-3), 73% home, proj. #1
W3: 106.7 (3-0, #276, D6 #15) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home, proj. #1
W2: 109.0 (2-0, #235, D6 #11) 97% (bubble if 6-4), 83% home, proj. #1
W1: 100.4 (1-0, #363, D6 #26) 57% (need 7-3), 29% home, proj. #4
W0: 97.7 (0-0, #433, D6 #36) 38% (need 7-3), 16% home, proj. out
Last year 102.0 (8-2)