Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#409 Columbiana (2-3) 97.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#40 of 110 in Division VI
#14 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 12-27 H #244 Berlin Center Western Reserve (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 35-42 A #192 McDonald (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 18 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-41 H #200 New Middletown Springfield (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 16 (80%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-14 A #626 Leetonia (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 20-14 A #470 Hanoverton United (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #549 Toronto (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #605 Wellsville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #588 Lisbon David Anderson (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #292 Salineville Southern (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #504 East Palestine (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 8 (67%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#14 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
11.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-11%, 5W-34%, 6W-42%, 7W-12%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.90 (11.40-14.60) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.40 (15.20-15.75) 9% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
12% WWWWW 15.40 pts, 9% in (out, range #6-out) Mogadore 68%

Worst realistic scenario
2.9% LWWLL 7.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
30% WWWLW 11.60 pts, out
12% WWWLL 9.65 pts, out
7.6% LWWLW 9.80 pts, out
5.5% WLWLW 10.20 pts, out
4.8% WWLLW 10.05 pts, out
4.6% WWWWL 13.45 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(20% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19) over Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21)
Week 7: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
67% Mogadore (4-1)
29% Kirtland (5-0)
2% Rootstown (5-0)
2% McDonald (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 94.7 (1-3, #440, D6 #48) 1% , proj. out
W3: 94.8 (0-3, #435, D6 #38) 1% , proj. out
W2: 93.5 (0-2, #453, D6 #39) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 91.3 (0-1, #481, D6 #48) 10% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 96.7 (0-0, #450, D6 #40) 33% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home, proj. out
Last year 98.5 (7-4)