Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#639 Fairport Harbor Fairport Harding (3-6) 73.0

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#67 of 108 in Division VII
#20 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-7 A #682 Newbury (1-8 D7 R25), pick: L by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 22-13 H #673 Brooklyn (3-6 D6 R21), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-19 H #622 Ashtabula St John School (6-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 19-14 A #629 Burton Berkshire (1-8 D5 R17), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-35 H #450 Independence (6-3 D6 R21), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 42-48 A #560 Middlefield Cardinal (3-6 D6 R21), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 0-42 H #75 Kirtland (9-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 40 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 14-46 A #350 Wickliffe (8-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 28 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 0-38 A #359 Cuyahoga Heights (7-2 D7 R25), pick: L by 27 (95%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #596 Richmond Heights (3-6 D7 R25), pick: L by 4 (60%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#46 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-60%, 4W-40%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 5.65 (5.30-6.55) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
40% W 5.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out) Cuyahoga Heights 70%
60% L 4.15 pts, out

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
70% Cuyahoga Heights (7-2)
30% Windham (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 73.0 (3-6, #639, D7 #67) 1% , proj. out
W8: 73.1 (3-5, #639, D7 #63) 5% (need 5-5), proj. out
W7: 71.9 (3-4, #650, D7 #69) 4% (need 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 73.6 (3-3, #633, D7 #62) 5% (need 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 74.3 (3-2, #629, D7 #59) 13% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 74.8 (3-1, #630, D7 #58) 14% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 69.9 (2-1, #662, D7 #70) 2% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 69.4 (2-0, #672, D7 #75) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 67.7 (1-0, #685, D7 #80) 2% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 65.2 (0-0, #690, D7 #85) 1% , proj. out
Last year 62.4 (1-9)