Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#632 Leetonia (4-5) 73.9

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#64 of 108 in Division VII
#18 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-14 A #662 Lowellville (3-6 D7 R25), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 19-0 H #696 Vienna Mathews (1-8 D7 R25), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 14-13 H #626 Southington Chalker (6-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-49 H #428 Columbiana (5-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 14-28 A #563 Toronto (3-6 D7 R25), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 0-6 H #610 Lisbon David Anderson (3-6 D7 R25), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 0-43 A #499 East Palestine (5-4 D5 R17), pick: L by 15 (82%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 0-34 H #398 Hanoverton United (7-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 10-7 A #621 Wellsville (2-7 D7 R25), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #341 Salineville Southern (8-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 25 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#61 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-95%, 5W-5%

Playoff chance
13% now (need 5-5), 1% home
100% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 6.10 (5.75-7.20) 9% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 9.60 (9.25-10.35) 100% in, 8% home, proj. #5 (#4-#7)

Playoff scenarios
4.8% W 9.60 pts, 100% in, 8% home (#5, range #4-#7) East Canton 39%
95% L 6.10 pts, 9% in (out, range #7-out) Cuyahoga Heights 72%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (3-6 D5 R17) over Warren John F Kennedy (4-5 D7 R25)
Week 10: Vienna Mathews (1-8 D7 R25) over Newbury (1-8 D7 R25)
Week 10: Ashland Crestview (4-5 D6 R22) over Plymouth (4-5 D7 R25)
Week 10: Wellsville (2-7 D7 R25) over Toronto (3-6 D7 R25)
Week 10: Strasburg-Franklin (1-8 D7 R25) over New Philadelphia Tuscarawas Central Catholic (4-5 D7 R25)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
46% Cuyahoga Heights (7-2)
20% Windham (8-1)
14% Ashland Mapleton (6-3)
14% East Canton (6-3)
3% Ashtabula St John School (6-3)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 73.9 (4-5, #632, D7 #64) 13% (need 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W8: 72.7 (3-5, #640, D7 #64) 10% (need 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W7: 73.3 (3-4, #636, D7 #62) 23% (bubble if 4-6), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 74.1 (3-3, #629, D7 #60) 26% (need 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 74.8 (3-2, #625, D7 #58) 45% (need 5-5), 4% home, proj. #8
W4: 76.4 (3-1, #622, D7 #56) 55% (need 5-5), 13% home, proj. #7
W3: 74.8 (3-0, #634, D7 #60) 35% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home, proj. out
W2: 72.8 (2-0, #644, D7 #62) 17% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 68.1 (1-0, #680, D7 #77) 6% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 62.0 (0-0, #700, D7 #93) 1% , proj. out
Last year 57.8 (0-10)