Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#192 McDonald (5-0) 113.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#10 of 110 in Division VI
#4 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 48-14 A #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 2 (53%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-35 H #409 Columbiana (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 56-7 A #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 27 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 59-3 H #684 Atwater Waterloo (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 34 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 20-17 A #200 New Middletown Springfield (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #679 North Jackson Jackson-Milton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 36 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #692 Mineral Ridge (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 37 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #713 Sebring McKinley (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 40 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #244 Berlin Center Western Reserve (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #632 Lowellville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 32 (97%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Playoff quirks
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#44 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
18.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
9W-44%, 10W-56%

Playoff chance
63% now (need 10-0), 9% home
63% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
9W: 15.15 (13.00-19.05) 17% in, 0% home, proj. out
10W: 18.85 (16.75-20.85) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
56% WWWWW 18.85 pts, 99% in, 17% home (#6, range #2-out) Southern 25%

Worst realistic scenario
0.3% WWWLL 13.63 pts, 3% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
43% WWWLW 15.15 pts, 17% in (out, range #5-out) Mogadore 61%
0.5% WWWWL 17.10 pts, 77% in (#7, range #5-out) Kirtland 51%

Teams to root for
Week 7: West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19) over Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21)
Week 10: Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23) over Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21)
Week 8: Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17) over Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21)
Week 7: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21)
Week 9: Columbiana (2-3 D6 R21) over Salineville Southern (5-0 D6 R21)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Salineville Southern (5-0)
18% Kirtland (5-0)
16% Mogadore (4-1)
14% Creston Norwayne (4-1)
11% Rootstown (5-0)

Championship probabilities
5.1% Region 21 champ
0.4% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.6 (4-0, #245, D6 #12) 26% (need 10-0), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 110.4 (3-0, #218, D6 #11) 28% (need 10-0), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 105.4 (2-0, #290, D6 #19) 30% (bubble if 9-1), 7% home, proj. out
W1: 107.3 (1-0, #265, D6 #11) 54% (need 9-1), 17% home, proj. #6
W0: 102.7 (0-0, #354, D6 #29) 46% (need 8-2), 16% home, proj. #8
Last year 104.9 (8-2)