Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#498 Monroeville (2-3) 89.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#29 of 108 in Division VII
#12 of 28 in Region 26
Eitel team page
Region 26 projections
Region 26 playoff probabilities
Region 26 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 27-59 A #315 Tiffin Calvert (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 28-16 A #569 Sandusky St Mary Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 46-16 H #509 Castalia Margaretta (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 22-42 A #416 Ashland Mapleton (4-1 D7 R25), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 20-33 H #430 Greenwich South Central (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #687 New London (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #479 Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #586 Collins Western Reserve (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #578 Plymouth (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #376 Norwalk St Paul (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 7 (66%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#11 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
8.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R26 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-4%, 4W-20%, 5W-39%, 6W-29%, 7W-7%

Playoff chance
2% now
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.10 (6.05-11.80) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.20 (8.05-13.70) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.50 (10.95-14.40) 27% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
7.2% WWWWW 12.50 pts, 27% in (out, range #6-out) Mohawk 57%

Worst realistic scenario
2.6% WLLLL 4.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% WLWWL 7.60 pts, out
15% WWWWL 9.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
8.0% WWWLL 8.00 pts, out
7.5% WLWLL 5.80 pts, out
7.2% WLWWW 10.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.6% WWLWL 8.45 pts, out
(31% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Bryan (4-1 D4 R14) over Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26)
Week 9: Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22) over Greenwich South Central (5-0 D7 R26)
Week 10: Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18) over Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
60% Sycamore Mohawk (5-0)
30% McComb (5-0)
9% Edgerton (5-0)
1% Tiffin Calvert (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 90.4 (2-2, #491, D7 #30) 22% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 95.4 (2-1, #426, D7 #20) 56% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. out
W2: 86.1 (1-1, #541, D7 #32) 15% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 81.7 (0-1, #580, D7 #41) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 86.2 (0-0, #561, D7 #34) 23% (need 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 89.7 (6-4)