Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#633 North Jackson Jackson-Milton (4-5) 73.6

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#65 of 108 in Division VII
#19 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-10 A #626 Southington Chalker (6-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 12 (71%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 22-33 H #619 Newton Falls (4-5 D6 R21), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-42 A #479 Windham (8-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 22 (88%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-48 H #196 New Middletown Springfield (8-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 39 (98%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 47-0 H #714 Sebring McKinley (0-9 D7 R25), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 14-55 A #180 McDonald (9-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 38 (99%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 20-0 A #695 Atwater Waterloo (2-7 D6 R21), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 33-0 H #662 Lowellville (3-6 D7 R25), pick: L by 2 (56%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 13-12 H #690 Mineral Ridge (1-8 D6 R21), pick: W by 14 (81%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #347 Berlin Center Western Reserve (7-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 27 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#82 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
4.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-97%, 5W-3%

Playoff chance
3% now (need 5-5)
91% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 7.20 (7.20-7.65) 91% in, 0% home, proj. #7 (#6-out)

Playoff scenarios
3.4% W 7.20 pts, 91% in (#7, range #6-out) Windham 47%
97% L 4.10 pts, out

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
47% Windham (8-1)
46% Cuyahoga Heights (7-2)
7% Ashland Mapleton (6-3)
1% East Canton (6-3)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 73.6 (4-5, #633, D7 #65) 3% (need 5-5), proj. out
W8: 73.9 (3-5, #628, D7 #61) 1% (bubble if 5-5), proj. out
W7: 68.3 (2-5, #667, D7 #76) 1% , proj. out
W6: 65.0 (1-5, #681, D7 #84) 1% , proj. out
W5: 65.7 (1-4, #681, D7 #86) 1% , proj. out
W4: 65.4 (0-4, #682, D7 #82) 1% , proj. out
W3: 64.7 (0-3, #689, D7 #85) out
W2: 65.5 (0-2, #687, D7 #83) 1% , proj. out
W1: 65.4 (0-1, #689, D7 #84) 1% , proj. out
W0: 75.2 (0-0, #653, D7 #64) 9% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 70.1 (2-8)