Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#292 Salineville Southern (5-0) 105.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#20 of 110 in Division VI
#10 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 39-13 H #501 Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 30-6 A #469 Hannibal River (2-3 D7 R27), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 26-13 A #364 Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 43-14 H #549 Toronto (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 23 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 36-6 A #588 Lisbon David Anderson (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 20 (87%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #504 East Palestine (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #470 Hanoverton United (3-2 D6 R21), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #605 Wellsville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #409 Columbiana (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #626 Leetonia (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 23 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#51 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
20.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-2%, 8W-14%, 9W-41%, 10W-43%

Playoff chance
98% now (bubble if 7-3), 76% home
99% with a win in next game, and 93% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 16.00 (13.85-18.55) 50% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 18.00 (14.95-21.55) 95% in, 14% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 20.35 (16.85-23.50) 100% in, 77% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
10W: 22.70 (19.95-25.00) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
43% WWWWW 22.70 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) McDonald 17%

Worst realistic scenario
5.9% WLWLW 17.60 pts, 91% in, 8% home (#7, range #3-out) Kirtland 27%

Most likely other scenarios
16% WWWLW 20.35 pts, 100% in, 77% home (#4, range #1-#8) Norwayne 19%
14% WLWWW 19.90 pts, 100% in, 69% home (#4, range #1-#8) Norwayne 21%
6.9% LWWWW 20.60 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #1-#8) Norwayne 19%
2.7% LWWLW 18.30 pts, 95% in, 16% home (#6, range #3-out) Norwayne 21%
2.2% WWWWL 20.90 pts, 100% in, 91% home (#3, range #2-#7) Norwayne 19%
2.1% LLWWW 17.80 pts, 96% in, 13% home (#6, range #3-out) Kirtland 23%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 8: Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21) over Huron Heights ON (1-2 D2)
Week 7: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21)
Week 8: Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19) over Weir WV (4-1 D4)
Week 6: Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19) over Oak Glen WV (2-3 D4)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
16% Creston Norwayne (4-1)
15% McDonald (5-0)
13% Rootstown (5-0)
13% Columbia Station Columbia (3-2)
10% Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1)

Championship probabilities
2.6% Region 21 champ
0.1% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 101.8 (4-0, #345, D6 #24) 88% (need 8-2), 41% home, proj. #5
W3: 100.6 (3-0, #356, D6 #25) 90% (bubble if 7-3), 48% home, proj. #3
W2: 94.2 (2-0, #443, D6 #36) 44% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home, proj. out
W1: 85.6 (1-0, #553, D6 #72) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 82.7 (0-0, #597, D6 #82) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 86.2 (5-5)