Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#569 Sandusky St Mary Central Catholic (2-3) 81.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#42 of 108 in Division VII
#14 of 28 in Region 26
Eitel team page
Region 26 projections
Region 26 playoff probabilities
Region 26 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 6-37 H #376 Norwalk St Paul (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 27 (90%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 16-28 H #498 Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 25-14 A #616 Bucyrus (1-4 D5 R18), pick: L by 11 (72%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 14-0 A #615 Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 35-36 H #557 Kansas Lakota (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #502 Willard (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 06 (W7) H #379 Gibsonburg (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 13 (W8) H #315 Tiffin Calvert (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #509 Castalia Margaretta (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #638 Lakeside Danbury (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 12 (76%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#36 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R26 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-12%, 3W-37%, 4W-35%, 5W-13%, 6W-2%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.95 (10.25-14.60) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.2% LWLWW 9.95 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
12% LLLLL 3.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% LLLLW 4.45 pts, out
10% WLLLW 6.35 pts, out
10% LLLWW 6.60 pts, out
5.7% LLLWL 5.05 pts, out
5.3% LWLLW 7.60 pts, out
5.2% WLLLL 4.90 pts, out
(26% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
50% Sycamore Mohawk (5-0)
26% McComb (5-0)
18% Edgerton (5-0)
3% Arlington (4-1)
3% Pandora-Gilboa (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 84.5 (2-2, #547, D7 #39) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 83.4 (1-2, #561, D7 #39) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 75.0 (0-2, #631, D7 #58) 1% , proj. out
W1: 78.9 (0-1, #605, D7 #46) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 80.5 (0-0, #615, D7 #48) 11% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 76.4 (1-9)