Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#538 Warren John F Kennedy (1-4) 84.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#35 of 108 in Division VII
#8 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) W 18-15 H #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-55 A #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-47 A #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 21 (87%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-63 A #259 Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 20 (86%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 14-48 H #364 Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #601 Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #591 Garfield Heights Trinity (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 13 (W8) A #225 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 20 (W9) A #505 Cleveland Central Catholic (0-5 D3 R10), pick: L by 7 (67%)
Oct 27 (W10) H #559 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#8 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
3.77 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-3%, 2W-17%, 3W-36%, 4W-33%, 5W-11%

Playoff chance
5% now
6% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 5.13 (3.42-9.78) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out
5W: 6.59 (5.79-10.89) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
9.4% WWLWW 6.44 pts, 10% in (out, range #6-out) Mapleton 42%

Worst realistic scenario
2.6% LLLLL 0.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% WWLLW 5.03 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
11% WWLLL 3.88 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
8.1% WLLLW 3.32 pts, out
7.2% WWLWL 5.39 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.8% LWLLW 3.83 pts, out
6.1% WLLLL 2.11 pts, out
(33% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14) over Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 8: Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17) over Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21)
Week 10: Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27) over Sarahsville Shenandoah (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 8: East Palestine (2-3 D5 R17) over Toronto (2-3 D7 R25)
Week 9: Ashland (4-1 D2 R7) over Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
28% Ashland Mapleton (4-1)
24% Cuyahoga Heights (4-1)
21% Windham (4-1)
10% East Canton (3-2)
9% Ashtabula St John School (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 86.9 (1-3, #519, D7 #34) 22% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 88.0 (1-2, #512, D7 #30) 26% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home, proj. out
W2: 87.9 (1-1, #519, D7 #29) 24% (need 5-5), 7% home, proj. out
W1: 91.5 (1-0, #479, D7 #25) 54% (bubble if 4-6), 26% home, proj. #5
W0: 96.1 (0-0, #458, D7 #19) 58% (bubble if 4-6), 33% home, proj. #3
Last year 96.7 (4-7)