Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#458 Ada (2-3) 93.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#49 of 110 in Division VI
#15 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 30-16 H #640 McGuffey Upper Scioto Valley (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 24 (87%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-37 H #320 Arlington (4-1 D7 R26), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 20-43 A #149 Lima Central Catholic (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 24 (89%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 38-6 H #570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 16-69 H #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #281 Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #579 Paulding (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #613 Bluffton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #493 Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 8 (68%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#29 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 5-5
7.81 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-12%, 4W-35%, 5W-36%, 6W-14%, 7W-2%

Playoff chance
3% now (need 7-3), 1% home
12% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 7.81 (6.34-12.30) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.43 (9.12-13.97) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 13.20 (12.40-15.07) 92% in, 6% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
6.6% LWWWW 10.43 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
5.6% LLLWL 3.83 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% LLWWW 7.20 pts, out
16% LLWWL 5.03 pts, out
6.7% LLLWW 5.99 pts, out
5.4% LWWWL 8.57 pts, out
4.9% LLWLW 6.09 pts, out
4.9% WLWWW 9.98 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
(30% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
16% Gibsonburg (4-1)
15% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
15% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
7% Northwood (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.5 (2-2, #416, D6 #40) 18% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 93.3 (1-2, #450, D6 #43) 21% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W2: 93.1 (1-1, #458, D6 #42) 26% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W1: 99.5 (1-0, #377, D6 #29) 52% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home, proj. #7
W0: 102.8 (0-0, #350, D6 #27) 53% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home, proj. #6
Last year 104.1 (7-4)