Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#281 Columbus Grove (3-2) 106.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#18 of 110 in Division VI
#1 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-25 H #198 Pandora-Gilboa (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 18-48 A #214 Leipsic (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 27-7 H #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-16 H #579 Paulding (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 33-20 A #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 16 (82%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #458 Ada (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #493 Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #613 Bluffton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#10 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
14.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-4%, 6W-22%, 7W-49%, 8W-24%

Playoff chance
87% now (bubble if 6-4), 49% home
93% with a win in next game, and 63% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.25 (8.00-13.10) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 12.20 (9.90-16.05) 62% in, 5% home, proj. #8 (#2-out)
7W: 14.30 (12.40-17.65) 99% in, 49% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 17.45 (15.95-18.50) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
24% WWWWW 17.45 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Northwood 13%

Worst realistic scenario
8.0% LLWWW 11.88 pts, 51% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Seneca East 20%

Most likely other scenarios
35% WLWWW 13.95 pts, 98% in, 34% home (#5, range #1-out) Northwood 16%
7.5% WLWLW 11.83 pts, 53% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Hillsdale 21%
6.0% LWWWW 15.25 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #1-#8) Northwood 14%
5.4% WWWLW 15.25 pts, 99% in, 79% home (#3, range #1-out) Northwood 17%
2.2% WLLWW 12.70 pts, 80% in, 6% home (#7, range #2-out) Hillsdale 26%
(12% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 6: Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28) over Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 7: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 9: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14)
Week 7: Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17) over Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Northwood (4-1)
13% Gibsonburg (4-1)
13% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
10% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
10% Attica Seneca East (4-1)

Championship probabilities
20% Region 22 champ
0.7% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 97.3 (2-2, #400, D6 #35) 18% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 93.6 (1-2, #447, D6 #41) 13% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 85.1 (0-2, #550, D6 #71) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 88.0 (0-1, #521, D6 #64) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 92.7 (0-0, #500, D6 #53) 11% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 89.9 (2-8)