Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#283 Edgerton (5-0) 106.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#7 of 108 in Division VII
#5 of 28 in Region 26
Eitel team page
Region 26 projections
Region 26 playoff probabilities
Region 26 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 68-0 H #618 West Unity Hilltop (3-2 D7 R26), pick: W by 18 (80%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 56-6 A #548 Edon (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 46-0 H #673 Montpelier (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 60-8 A #631 Holgate (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 62-29 A #425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #408 Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #541 Defiance Tinora (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 15 (82%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #580 Antwerp (3-2 D7 R26), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #434 Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #573 Defiance Ayersville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 14 (80%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#61 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
18.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R26 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-2%, 8W-15%, 9W-42%, 10W-40%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 84% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 14.70 (12.40-17.05) 95% in, 5% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 16.60 (14.50-19.70) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 18.80 (16.45-21.25) 100% in, 91% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
10W: 21.15 (19.50-22.70) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
40% WWWWW 21.15 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Pandora-Gilboa 18%

Worst realistic scenario
6.1% LWWLW 16.15 pts, 99% in, 23% home (#5, range #3-out) Calvert 28%

Most likely other scenarios
17% WWWLW 18.70 pts, 100% in, 88% home (#3, range #1-#7) Calvert 20%
15% LWWWW 18.60 pts, 100% in, 89% home (#3, range #1-#6) Calvert 20%
5.6% WLWWW 19.65 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) Leipsic 17%
2.7% WWWWL 19.55 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#3, range #1-#5) Calvert 18%
2.4% WLWLW 17.25 pts, 100% in, 56% home (#4, range #2-#8) Calvert 24%
2.2% WWLWW 19.10 pts, 100% in, 93% home (#3, range #1-#6) Calvert 17%
(9% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Montpelier (0-5 D6 R22) over Toledo Ottawa Hills (1-4 D6 R22)
Week 9: West Unity Hilltop (3-2 D7 R26) over Oregon Cardinal Stritch Catholic (2-3 D6 R22)
Week 10: Arlington (4-1 D7 R26) over Leipsic (5-0 D7 R26)
Week 9: Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22) over Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26)
Week 8: Edon (2-3 D7 R26) over Oregon Cardinal Stritch Catholic (2-3 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
17% Leipsic (5-0)
16% Tiffin Calvert (4-1)
16% Pandora-Gilboa (5-0)
15% Greenwich South Central (5-0)
11% Norwalk St Paul (4-1)

Championship probabilities
7.3% Region 26 champ
1.2% Division 7 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.2 (4-0, #389, D7 #17) 90% (need 7-3), 43% home, proj. #5
W3: 99.3 (3-0, #377, D7 #17) 93% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home, proj. #4
W2: 98.7 (2-0, #385, D7 #18) 92% (need 6-4), 47% home, proj. #5
W1: 94.9 (1-0, #443, D7 #20) 77% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home, proj. #4
W0: 96.1 (0-0, #456, D7 #18) 71% (need 6-4), 36% home, proj. #6
Last year 103.0 (8-3)