Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#493 Harrod Allen East (2-3) 89.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#59 of 110 in Division VI
#17 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-14 H #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 28-40 A #460 Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 13-31 A #323 Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 20 (86%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 15-27 A #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 20 (86%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 50-6 H #570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 2 (56%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #613 Bluffton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #579 Paulding (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #281 Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #458 Ada (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 8 (68%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#31 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
4.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-2%, 3W-18%, 4W-40%, 5W-32%, 6W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 9.20 (8.35-12.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.8% WWWLW 9.30 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% LLLLL 2.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% WWLLL 4.10 pts, out
18% WWLLW 6.05 pts, out
7.5% WLLLL 2.85 pts, out
7.1% LWLLL 3.05 pts, out
6.1% WLLLW 4.85 pts, out
5.7% LWLLW 5.05 pts, out
(29% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
38% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
18% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
10% Northwood (4-1)
8% Gibsonburg (4-1)
8% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 86.8 (1-3, #521, D6 #64) 1% , proj. out
W3: 86.2 (1-2, #530, D6 #66) 2% , proj. out
W2: 87.6 (1-1, #522, D6 #63) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 94.4 (1-0, #450, D6 #41) 21% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W0: 90.7 (0-0, #518, D6 #60) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 87.6 (2-8)