Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#536 Mount Blanchard Riverdale (3-2) 85.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#34 of 108 in Division VII
#9 of 27 in Region 28
Eitel team page
Region 28 projections
Region 28 playoff probabilities
Region 28 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-40 A #320 Arlington (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 20 (83%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 45-19 A #646 Dola Hardin Northern (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-26 H #674 Cory-Rawson (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 15 (78%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-56 A #166 McComb (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 49-7 H #717 Vanlue (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #405 Findlay Liberty-Benton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #695 North Baltimore (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 20 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #471 Van Buren (1-4 D5 R18), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #703 Arcadia (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #198 Pandora-Gilboa (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 26 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#63 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
5.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R28 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-7%, 5W-44%, 6W-39%, 7W-10%

Playoff chance
9% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
21% with a win in next game, and 5% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 5.60 (4.55-9.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 7.05 (5.30-10.65) 9% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 8.70 (6.90-11.80) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
7.9% WWWWL 8.35 pts, 44% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Loramie 77%

Worst realistic scenario
4.0% LLLWL 4.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
37% LWLWL 5.30 pts, out
21% LWWWL 6.95 pts, 5% in (out, range #7-out) Fort Loramie 93%
14% WWLWL 6.80 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out) Fort Loramie 93%
2.9% LWLLL 4.55 pts, out
2.2% LLWWL 6.15 pts, out
(11% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Dola Hardin Northern (2-3 D7 R28) over Waynesfield-Goshen (3-2 D7 R28)
Week 8: Findlay Liberty-Benton (1-4 D6 R22) over Bascom Hopewell-Loudon (2-3 D7 R26)
Week 8: Miamisburg Dayton Christian (3-2 D6 R24) over Lockland (1-4 D7 R28)
Week 8: Versailles (2-3 D5 R18) over New Bremen (3-2 D7 R28)
Week 8: Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24) over De Graff Riverside (2-3 D7 R28)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
66% Fort Loramie (4-1)
16% Minster (4-1)
10% Convoy Crestview (4-1)
4% Cincinnati Miami Valley Christian Academy (5-0)
2% Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 82.7 (2-2, #562, D7 #41) 2% , proj. out
W3: 82.9 (2-1, #567, D7 #40) 12% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 80.5 (1-1, #588, D7 #45) 9% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 75.4 (0-1, #640, D7 #60) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 78.7 (0-0, #629, D7 #58) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 80.3 (5-5)