Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#647 Oregon Cardinal Stritch Catholic (2-3) 72.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#97 of 110 in Division VI
#25 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-24 A #615 Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 13 (74%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-41 A #198 Pandora-Gilboa (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 30 (94%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 19-49 A #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 15 (79%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 51-50 H #673 Montpelier (0-5 D6 R22), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 38-6 A #693 Toledo Christian (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #714 Stryker (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #669 Toledo Ottawa Hills (1-4 D6 R22), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #548 Edon (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #618 West Unity Hilltop (3-2 D7 R26), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #406 Northwood (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#84 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
4.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-1%, 3W-21%, 4W-42%, 5W-29%, 6W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 8.85 (8.65-11.90) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.0% WWWWL 8.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
17% WLLLL 2.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% WWLLL 4.35 pts, out
13% WWLWL 6.55 pts, out
9.6% WLLWL 5.15 pts, out
8.2% WWWLL 6.60 pts, out
6.5% WLWLL 5.45 pts, out
3.4% WLWWL 7.65 pts, out
(16% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Gibsonburg (4-1)
19% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
17% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
11% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
6% Hicksville (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 69.6 (1-3, #666, D6 #102) 1% , proj. out
W3: 66.7 (0-3, #679, D6 #106) 1% , proj. out
W2: 68.3 (0-2, #679, D6 #106) 1% , proj. out
W1: 68.2 (0-1, #679, D6 #106) 1% , proj. out
W0: 70.8 (0-0, #677, D6 #107) 1% , proj. out
Last year 69.4 (1-9)