Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#587 New Philadelphia Tuscarawas Central Catholic (4-5) 79.6

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#46 of 108 in Division VII
#11 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-41 A Greensburg Central Catholic PA (6-3 D7)
Sep 01 (W2) W 14-6 H #672 Grove City Christian (3-6 D7 R27), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 19-46 A #581 Caldwell (5-4 D7 R27), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-48 H #278 Sugarcreek Garaway (8-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 28 (94%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 21-14 A #677 Newcomerstown (0-9 D6 R21), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 7-44 H #313 Magnolia Sandy Valley (8-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 10-35 A #384 East Canton (6-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 13 (W8) W 20-13 H #562 Lore City Buckeye Trail (5-4 D6 R23), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 20 (W9) W 33-12 H #640 Malvern (3-6 D7 R25), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #670 Strasburg-Franklin (1-8 D7 R25), pick: W by 11 (74%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff quirks
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#42 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
6.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-26%, 5W-74%

Playoff chance
40% now (bubble if 5-5)
51% with a win in next game, and 10% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 5.95 (5.60-6.85) 10% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 6.65 (6.30-7.90) 51% in, 0% home, proj. #8 (#6-out)

Playoff scenarios
74% W 6.65 pts, 51% in (#8, range #6-out) Cuyahoga Heights 58%
26% L 5.95 pts, 10% in (out, range #7-out) Cuyahoga Heights 64%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Ashtabula St John School (6-3 D7 R25) over Southington Chalker (6-3 D7 R25)
Week 10: Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (3-6 D5 R17) over Warren John F Kennedy (4-5 D7 R25)
Week 10: Ashland Crestview (4-5 D6 R22) over Plymouth (4-5 D7 R25)
Week 10: Lore City Buckeye Trail (5-4 D6 R23) over East Canton (6-3 D7 R25)
Week 10: Hanoverton United (7-2 D6 R21) over Lisbon David Anderson (3-6 D7 R25)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
58% Cuyahoga Heights (7-2)
40% Windham (8-1)
2% Ashland Mapleton (6-3)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 79.6 (4-5, #587, D7 #46) 40% (bubble if 5-5), proj. #8
W8: 78.5 (3-5, #596, D7 #48) 18% (bubble if 5-5), proj. out
W7: 73.4 (2-5, #635, D7 #61) 2% , proj. out
W6: 73.1 (2-4, #636, D7 #63) 2% , proj. out
W5: 73.6 (2-3, #635, D7 #63) 6% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 73.9 (1-3, #635, D7 #61) 4% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 73.0 (1-2, #645, D7 #64) 5% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 78.9 (1-1, #603, D7 #48) 19% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 76.4 (0-1, #633, D7 #56) 9% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 78.4 (0-0, #631, D7 #59) 22% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 74.0 (2-8)