Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#385 Newark Catholic (1-4) 98.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#34 of 110 in Division VI
#5 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 17-13 A #367 Zanesville Maysville (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 10 (69%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 2-20 A #293 Attica Seneca East (4-1 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 14-16 H #296 Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-12 H #355 Pataskala Watkins Memorial (2-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 21-28 A #123 Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #537 Utica (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #154 Johnstown-Monroe (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #212 Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #375 Heath (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #582 Johnstown Northridge (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 19 (87%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#6 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-11%, 3W-38%, 4W-38%, 5W-11%, 6W-1%

Playoff chance
9% now (bubble if 5-5), 1% home
11% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.65 (6.60-14.00) 4% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.75 (8.95-15.85) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
6W: 15.85 (14.20-18.05) 100% in, 33% home, proj. #5 (#2-#8)

Best realistic scenario
2.7% WWLWW 12.33 pts, 79% in (#8, range #5-out) Fort Frye 26%

Worst realistic scenario
5.9% LLLLW 3.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
25% WLLLW 5.70 pts, out
21% WLLWW 8.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
8.4% WLWLW 8.85 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
7.0% WLWWW 11.60 pts, 48% in (out, range #5-out) Fort Frye 24%
5.0% LLLWW 6.65 pts, out
3.8% WLLLL 4.57 pts, out
(21% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Heath (2-3 D5 R19) over Pataskala Watkins Memorial (2-3 D2 R7)
Week 10: Waterford (4-1 D7 R27) over Belpre (3-2 D6 R23)
Week 9: Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15) over Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15)
Week 9: Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15) over Granville (4-1 D3 R11)
Week 10: Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
22% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
16% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)
13% Shadyside (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.5% Region 23 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.6 (1-3, #381, D6 #32) 13% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 98.7 (1-2, #388, D6 #30) 13% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 100.6 (1-1, #360, D6 #25) 32% (need 6-4), 11% home, proj. out
W1: 107.2 (1-0, #266, D6 #12) 77% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home, proj. #3
W0: 102.9 (0-0, #345, D6 #24) 39% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home, proj. #6
Last year 101.8 (3-7)