Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#528 Plymouth (4-5) 86.4

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#37 of 108 in Division VII
#8 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-20 A #607 Cardington-Lincoln (1-8 D7 R27), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 35-38 A #465 Willard (5-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 47-7 H #692 New Washington Buckeye Central (0-9 D7 R26), pick: W by 22 (88%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-22 A #480 Greenwich South Central (6-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-28 H #279 Norwalk St Paul (8-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 16 (82%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 10-23 A #571 Collins Western Reserve (2-7 D6 R22), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 35-6 H #684 New London (0-9 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 63-33 A #453 Ashland Mapleton (6-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 11-14 H #451 Monroeville (6-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #477 Ashland Crestview (4-5 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#43 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
4.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-57%, 5W-43%

Playoff chance
24% now (bubble if 5-5)
55% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 6.90 (6.10-7.30) 55% in, 0% home, proj. #8 (#6-out)

Playoff scenarios
43% W 6.90 pts, 55% in (#8, range #6-out) Cuyahoga Heights 54%
57% L 4.95 pts, out

Teams to root for
Week 10: Ashtabula St John School (6-3 D7 R25) over Southington Chalker (6-3 D7 R25)
Week 10: Cardington-Lincoln (1-8 D7 R27) over Mount Gilead (0-9 D6 R23)
Week 10: Ashland Mapleton (6-3 D7 R25) over Collins Western Reserve (2-7 D6 R22)
Week 10: Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (3-6 D5 R17) over Warren John F Kennedy (4-5 D7 R25)
Week 10: Brookfield (2-7 D6 R21) over Warren Champion (2-7 D5 R17)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
54% Cuyahoga Heights (7-2)
44% Windham (8-1)
2% Ashland Mapleton (6-3)

Championship probabilities
0.6% Region 25 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 86.4 (4-5, #528, D7 #37) 24% (bubble if 5-5), proj. out
W8: 86.6 (4-4, #525, D7 #36) 28% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W7: 79.2 (3-4, #591, D7 #45) 1% , proj. out
W6: 77.1 (2-4, #610, D7 #52) 1% , proj. out
W5: 80.6 (2-3, #578, D7 #44) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 81.2 (2-2, #575, D7 #44) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 81.4 (2-1, #582, D7 #43) 17% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 81.3 (1-1, #581, D7 #43) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 88.0 (1-0, #520, D7 #29) 49% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. #7
W0: 84.1 (0-0, #589, D7 #41) 21% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 85.4 (4-6)