Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#617 Racine Southern (6-3) 75.4

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#56 of 108 in Division VII
#11 of 26 in Region 27
Eitel team page
Region 27 projections
Region 27 playoff probabilities
Region 27 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 36-6 H #699 Portsmouth Notre Dame (2-7 D7 R27), pick: W by 18 (80%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 57-6 H #712 Stewart Federal Hocking (0-8 D6 R23), pick: W by 26 (90%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 43-0 A Wahama WV (1-7 D7)
Sep 14 (W4) W 58-13 H #703 Corning Miller (2-7 D7 R27), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 41-55 A #555 Belpre (6-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 54-12 H #685 Crown City South Gallia (3-6 D7 R27), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 35-19 A Ravenswood WV (2-6 D5)
Oct 12 (W8) L 7-42 A #487 Waterford (7-2 D7 R27), pick: L by 11 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 0-51 H #334 Glouster Trimble (8-1 D7 R27), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #669 Reedsville Eastern (4-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 6 (65%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#101 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 96
Projected record 7-3
8.54 Harbin points (divisor 96)
Projected #8 seed in R27 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-35%, 7W-65%

Playoff chance
54% now (need 7-3)
83% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 6.68 (6.16-7.51) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 8.54 (8.02-9.37) 83% in, 0% home, proj. #8 (#7-out)

Playoff scenarios
65% W 8.54 pts, 83% in (#8, range #7-out) Harvest Prep 56%
35% L 6.68 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out) Harvest Prep 66%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Sarahsville Shenandoah (4-5 D6 R23) over Caldwell (5-4 D7 R27)
Week 10: Crown City South Gallia (3-6 D7 R27) over Bidwell River Valley (0-9 D5 R19)
Week 10: Zanesville Bishop Rosecrans (5-4 D7 R27) over Lancaster Fisher Catholic (5-3 D7 R27)
Week 10: Ravenswood WV (2-6 D5) over
Week 10: Zanesville West Muskingum (0-9 D5 R19) over Woodsfield Monroe Central (1-8 D7 R27)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
56% Canal Winchester Harvest Prep (9-0)
44% Lucas (7-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 75.4 (6-3, #617, D7 #56) 54% (need 7-3), proj. #8
W8: 75.0 (6-2, #621, D7 #58) 40% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. #8
W7: 78.1 (6-1, #601, D7 #49) 82% (need 7-3), 16% home, proj. #7
W6: 78.3 (5-1, #599, D7 #48) 71% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. #7
W5: 77.0 (4-1, #607, D7 #52) 43% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W4: 82.3 (4-0, #566, D7 #43) 76% (need 7-3), 20% home, proj. #6
W3: 81.4 (3-0, #583, D7 #44) 72% (need 7-3), 24% home, proj. #7
W2: 82.0 (2-0, #578, D7 #42) 75% (need 7-3), 26% home, proj. #6
W1: 81.3 (1-0, #589, D7 #44) 52% (bubble if 7-3), 14% home, proj. #7
W0: 81.4 (0-0, #607, D7 #47) 42% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home, proj. out
Last year 83.2 (7-3)