Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#488 Waterford (4-1) 90.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#28 of 108 in Division VII
#5 of 26 in Region 27
Eitel team page
Region 27 projections
Region 27 playoff probabilities
Region 27 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 55-0 H #671 Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (1-4 D7 R27), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-6 A #697 Crown City South Gallia (1-4 D7 R27), pick: W by 24 (88%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-22 A #331 Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 36-6 H #680 Reedsville Eastern (1-4 D7 R27), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 47-6 A #677 Corning Miller (1-4 D7 R27), pick: W by 23 (90%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #328 Glouster Trimble (4-0 D7 R27), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H Wahama WV, [W by 34, 98%]
Oct 12 (W8) H #609 Racine Southern (4-1 D7 R27), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #715 Stewart Federal Hocking (0-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #545 Belpre (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 12 (75%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#94 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 96
Projected record 8-2
13.21 Harbin points (divisor 96)
Projected #4 seed in R27 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-6%, 7W-33%, 8W-50%, 9W-10%

Playoff chance
94% now (need 7-3), 50% home
100% with a win in next game, and 93% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 7.78 (6.32-12.62) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 10.42 (8.85-14.11) 96% in, 9% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 13.21 (11.44-17.59) 100% in, 72% home, proj. #4 (#2-#8)
9W: 16.69 (14.97-18.41) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
10% WWWWW 16.69 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Green 19%

Worst realistic scenario
5.2% LWLWL 7.57 pts, 14% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Harvest Prep 60%

Most likely other scenarios
42% LWWWW 13.16 pts, 100% in, 69% home (#4, range #2-#8) Berne Union 27%
21% LWWWL 10.21 pts, 98% in, 7% home (#6, range #3-out) Lucas 28%
11% LWLWW 10.47 pts, 93% in, 7% home (#7, range #3-out) Trimble 27%
5.3% WWWWL 14.00 pts, 100% in, 88% home (#4, range #2-#7) Berne Union 26%
2.7% WWLWW 13.99 pts, 100% in, 88% home (#4, range #2-#6) Berne Union 27%
(3% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23) over Lancaster Fisher Catholic (3-1 D7 R27)
Week 8: Cincinnati Aiken (3-2 D4 R16) over Lucas (3-2 D7 R27)
Week 10: Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23) over Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1 D7 R27)
Week 6: Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23) over Hannibal River (2-3 D7 R27)
Week 6: Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (1-4 D7 R27) over McDermott Northwest (0-5 D5 R20)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1)
17% Lucas (3-2)
15% Lancaster Fisher Catholic (3-1)
10% Glouster Trimble (4-0)
9% Hannibal River (2-3)

Championship probabilities
3.8% Region 27 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.4 (3-1, #497, D7 #31) 89% (need 7-3), 29% home, proj. #4
W3: 89.9 (2-1, #501, D7 #26) 85% (need 7-3), 39% home, proj. #4
W2: 88.0 (2-0, #518, D7 #28) 79% (need 7-3), 33% home, proj. #4
W1: 89.6 (1-0, #498, D7 #27) 76% (need 7-3), 34% home, proj. #5
W0: 87.6 (0-0, #548, D7 #33) 56% (need 7-3), 27% home, proj. #4
Last year 95.2 (9-2)