Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#354 Covington (2-3) 100.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#27 of 110 in Division VI
#8 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-22 H #147 St Henry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 19 (81%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 26-39 A #101 Minster (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 23 (88%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-33 A #190 Fort Loramie (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 45-8 H #444 Lewisburg Tri-County North (3-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 24-6 A #623 Arcanum (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #273 Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #494 Tipp City Bethel (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #708 Bradford (0-5 D7 R28), pick: W by 38 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #564 West Alexandria Twin Valley South (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #571 New Paris National Trail (3-2 D6 R24), pick: W by 23 (91%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#11 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
11.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-5%, 5W-26%, 6W-47%, 7W-21%

Playoff chance
22% now (need 7-3)
53% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.25 (9.30-13.95) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.35 (13.25-16.10) 86% in, 0% home, proj. #7 (#5-out)

Best realistic scenario
21% WWWWW 14.35 pts, 86% in (#7, range #5-out) Lima Central Catholic 34%

Worst realistic scenario
2.7% LLWLW 6.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
32% LWWWW 11.05 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out) Lima Central Catholic 45%
13% LLWWW 8.30 pts, out
8.2% WLWWW 11.65 pts, 7% in (out, range #7-out) Lima Central Catholic 43%
6.5% LWWLW 9.15 pts, out
4.2% WWWLW 12.45 pts, 32% in (out, range #5-out) Coldwater 43%
3.6% LWWWL 8.90 pts, out
(9% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 9: Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2 D7 R28) over Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 9: Arcanum (1-4 D6 R24) over Union City Mississinawa Valley (3-2 D7 R28)
Week 8: Cincinnati Madeira (3-2 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 6: Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28) over Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
36% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
31% Coldwater (5-0)
21% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
11% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 100.8 (1-3, #354, D6 #26) 22% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 94.4 (0-3, #439, D6 #39) 3% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 96.3 (0-2, #413, D6 #32) 12% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 94.3 (0-1, #456, D6 #43) 18% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 97.2 (0-0, #442, D6 #37) 33% (need 7-3), 8% home, proj. #8
Last year 94.9 (5-5)