Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#187 Fort Recovery (2-3) 113.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#9 of 110 in Division VI
#6 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 23-6 A #428 Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 27-23 H #179 Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 22-28 A #101 Minster (4-1 D7 R28), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 15-19 H #294 New Bremen (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 31-35 H #34 Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #356 Rockford Parkway (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #138 Anna (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 10 (73%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #147 St Henry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #26 Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #333 Versailles (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 14 (80%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#3 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
10.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-2%, 3W-15%, 4W-38%, 5W-34%, 6W-10%

Playoff chance
25% now (bubble if 5-5), 1% home
29% with a win in next game, and 14% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 10.35 (7.30-14.40) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.65 (9.65-16.65) 40% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.40 (13.00-18.90) 93% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
7.6% WWWLW 15.10 pts, 91% in (#7, range #5-out) Coldwater 29%

Worst realistic scenario
5.8% WLLLL 8.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WLLLW 9.75 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
16% WLWLW 12.30 pts, 33% in (out, range #5-out) Lima Central Catholic 43%
11% WWLLW 12.40 pts, 27% in (out, range #5-out) Coldwater 45%
6.8% LLLLW 8.45 pts, out
5.0% LLWLW 11.00 pts, 5% in (out, range #7-out) Lima Central Catholic 62%
4.8% WLWLL 10.80 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)
(25% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2 D7 R28) over Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24)
Week 7: Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16) over Franklin (1-4 D3 R12)
Week 6: Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16) over Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11)
Week 6: Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18) over Covington (2-3 D6 R24)
Week 10: Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16) over Brookville (4-1 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
33% Coldwater (5-0)
33% Lima Central Catholic (5-0)
19% Mechanicsburg (5-0)
13% Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0)
1% Spencerville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 111.1 (2-2, #207, D6 #10) 25% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 116.4 (2-1, #158, D6 #8) 59% (need 6-4), 11% home, proj. #6
W2: 120.5 (2-0, #112, D6 #4) 88% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home, proj. #5
W1: 114.8 (1-0, #160, D6 #5) 51% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home, proj. #5
W0: 114.1 (0-0, #200, D6 #6) 33% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 121.0 (6-5)