Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#647 Franklin Furnace Green (8-1) 72.0

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#70 of 108 in Division VII
#13 of 26 in Region 27
Eitel team page
Region 27 projections
Region 27 playoff probabilities
Region 27 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 54-14 H Dohn Community OH (0-6 D5)
Aug 31 (W2) W 86-14 A Hannan WV (0-7 D7)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-0 H West Union (club) OH (7-2 D0)(game does not count)
Sep 14 (W4) W 16-8 H #666 Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (3-6 D7 R27), pick: L by 21 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 22-15 H #679 Willow Wood Symmes Valley (4-5 D7 R27), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 8-16 A #699 Portsmouth Notre Dame (2-7 D7 R27), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 55-0 H #713 Manchester (2-7 D7 R27), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 34-14 A #635 Beaver Eastern (4-5 D6 R23), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 16-7 A #680 McDermott Northwest (1-8 D5 R20), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #446 Oak Hill (7-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 23 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#108 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 83
Projected record 8-2
10.11 Harbin points (divisor 83)
Projected #5 seed in R27 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-93%, 9W-7%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 8-2), 9% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 10.11 (9.57-10.71) 100% in, 2% home, proj. #6 (#4-#8)
9W: 13.98 (13.44-14.58) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #4 (#4-#4)

Playoff scenarios
7.3% W 13.98 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#4, range #4-#4) Waterford 87%
93% L 10.11 pts, 100% in, 2% home (#6, range #4-#8) Waterford 42%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Worthington Christian (6-3 D6 R23) over Sugar Grove Berne Union (7-2 D7 R27)
Week 10: Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (3-6 D7 R27) over Portsmouth Notre Dame (2-7 D7 R27)
Week 10: Dohn Community OH (0-6 D5) over Cincinnati Riverview East Academy (3-6 D6 R24)
Week 10: Belpre (6-3 D6 R23) over Waterford (7-2 D7 R27)
Week 10: Zanesville Bishop Rosecrans (5-4 D7 R27) over Lancaster Fisher Catholic (5-3 D7 R27)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
45% Waterford (7-2)
37% Glouster Trimble (8-1)
10% Lucas (7-2)
6% Canal Winchester Harvest Prep (9-0)
2% Sugar Grove Berne Union (7-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 72.0 (8-1, #647, D7 #70) in and 9% home, proj. #5
W8: 70.6 (7-1, #653, D7 #70) 94% (need 7-3), 7% home, proj. #5
W7: 64.1 (6-1, #684, D7 #87) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 63.6 (5-1, #688, D7 #86) 26% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 69.7 (5-0, #664, D7 #73) 68% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home, proj. #7
W4: 64.0 (4-0, #688, D7 #85) 21% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 50.5 (3-0, #715, D7 #106) 1% , proj. out
W2: 50.5 (2-0, #715, D7 #106) 1% , proj. out
W1: 50.5 (1-0, #715, D7 #106) 1% , proj. out
W0: 52.4 (0-0, #717, D7 #109) 1% , proj. out
Last year 47.8 (1-8)