Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#173 Mechanicsburg (5-0) 115.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#8 of 110 in Division VI
#5 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 54-14 A #324 Springfield Kenton Ridge (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-0 H #581 De Graff Riverside (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 31 (94%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 44-0 H #602 South Charleston Southeastern Local (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 35 (97%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 7-0 A #250 Jamestown Greeneview (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 41-0 H #654 London Madison-Plains (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 36 (98%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #400 West Liberty-Salem (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #263 West Jefferson (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 10 (73%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #620 North Lewisburg Triad (4-1 D7 R28), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #639 Springfield Northeastern (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 33 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #466 Milford Center Fairbanks (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 21 (89%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#63 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
25.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-1%, 8W-9%, 9W-39%, 10W-51%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 8-2), 96% home
100% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 18.90 (16.30-22.80) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #4 (#3-#7)
9W: 21.90 (18.95-26.30) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#1-#5)
10W: 25.05 (21.65-28.15) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #3 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
51% WWWWW 25.05 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Perry 24%

Worst realistic scenario
4.5% LLWWW 18.50 pts, 100% in, 65% home (#4, range #3-#7) Spencerville 40%

Most likely other scenarios
21% WLWWW 21.60 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) Spencerville 35%
10% LWWWW 22.00 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #2-#5) Spencerville 30%
6.6% WWWWL 22.55 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #2-#5) Spencerville 29%
2.5% WLWWL 19.15 pts, 100% in, 79% home (#4, range #3-#6) Spencerville 47%
(4% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Springfield Kenton Ridge (4-1 D4 R16) over New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2 D2 R8)
Week 10: South Charleston Southeastern Local (1-4 D7 R28) over Springfield Greenon (2-3 D5 R18)
Week 10: Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24) over Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 8: Springfield Kenton Ridge (4-1 D4 R16) over Springfield Shawnee (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 8: Minster (4-1 D7 R28) over Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0 D6 R24)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Spencerville (4-1)
20% Lima Perry (4-1)
15% Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0)
9% St Henry (4-1)
7% West Liberty-Salem (4-1)

Championship probabilities
3.5% Region 24 champ
1.1% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 114.9 (4-0, #173, D6 #8) in and 98% home, proj. #3
W3: 113.5 (3-0, #184, D6 #10) 99% (need 7-3), 88% home, proj. #3
W2: 113.8 (2-0, #176, D6 #9) 98% (need 7-3), 76% home, proj. #4
W1: 111.1 (1-0, #213, D6 #8) 94% (need 7-3), 73% home, proj. #4
W0: 107.4 (0-0, #284, D6 #12) 83% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home, proj. #4
Last year 105.0 (8-3)